New England Patriots – Before Albert Haynesworth landed on Tom Brady I was ready to make the Patriots my Super Bowl pick along with nearly every other prognosticator.  I don’t think their defense is the equal of Baltimore’s or Pittsburgh’s but it’s pretty dang good and that’s all it needs to be considering how Brady and Moss light up the scoreboard.

 

Miami Dolphins – The injury to Tom Brady had a lot to do with their meteoric rise last season.  They also had a very favorable turnover ratio helping them along the way.  The reality is that the overall roster has average talent.  The pairing of Taylor and Porter as pass rushers may help the defense, but does anyone expect Pennington to have as good a season as he did in 2008 given the level of talent at the receiver position?  With Brady back in New England, Merriman back in San Diego, the balance of power in the AFC has been restored meaning the Dolphins will need to catch some more lucky breaks in order to make the playoffs.

 

New York Jets – This is a team with a lot of potential on both sides of the ball.  Matt Ryan aside, rookie QBs usually are not able to get the job done.  Even if Mark Sanchez plays really well, I believe this team is still a step behind the AFC powerhouses.  I also want to add how disappointing it is to watch Vernon Gholston.  I wonder what causes a player’s talent for rushing the passer in college to completely disappear at the pro level.  I’ve focused on his play throughout the pre-season and it’s clear to me his legs are going dead at precisely the moment when he needs to burst.  It certainly gives me something to think about for when I look at future draft prospects.

 

Buffalo Bills – Trent Edwards is overrated and he’s working behind a very inexperienced offensive line.  I don’t know if T.O. can save him.  The defense is mediocre.  Unless Edwards elevates his play this team should plummet.

 

Baltimore Ravens – Last year Joe Flacco was still working out the kinks and the defense carried the load.  Even though they’ve suffered some losses on D, they still have a superstar at each level: Ngata on the D line, Lewis at LB and Reed in the secondary.  I’m sure their D will be as nasty as ever.  And now it looks as though Flacco has taken the next step in his development.  That’s got to be a scary prospect for the rest of the AFC.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers – This looks like the same team as last year.  Last year it was good enough but will that be the case this year?

 

Cincinnati Bengals – If Carson Palmer can return to form things will not be so dismal for the Bengals but even with the improvements in their defense they are still clearly behind the AFC powerhouses.

 

Cleveland Browns – Quinn and Anderson are both decent but make the mistakes that inexperienced QBs make.  If I were the Browns I would pick the one who is most likely to eliminate the bad habits and then trade the other.  If it were up to me I’d keep Quinn and trade Anderson.  I think I might be able to work a deal with SF and it doesn’t really matter what I get in return.  The point would be to take this team out of QB limbo.  Quinn and Anderson are so closely matched, it’s hard to pick one, but pick one!  Let your team rally around the direction it knows it’s heading.  The Browns drafted 2 receivers in Robiskie and Massaquoi that I really like.  They drafted RB James Davis who I really liked a few seasons ago but whose stock slowly dropped during his last season at Clemson.  It’s nice to see him tearing it up in the pre-season games confirming the talent was within in him all along.  The Browns also drafted Coye Francies a fellow Spartan Alum.  They have a lot I want to root for.  But the AFC looks particularly strong this season so I don’t see them making many gains.

 

Tennessee Titans – The O line must be really good because they are turning Kerry Collins into an effective QB.  And now the talent at the skill positions around him is improving.  It’s possible the defense will take a step back with Haynesworth having gone bye-bye, but I don’t see this team being out of any game that it plays.

 

Houston Texans – The Texans were going to be my sexy pick but they’ve seemingly become everyone’s sexy pick.  Most people pin their expectations on the health of Matt Schaub but I think that needs to be taken one step further.  His health to me is less important than his level of play.  If he improves to his promised potential the Texans offense should be strong.  If he founders it will be mediocre.  If Schaub gets injured, both Orlavsky and Grossman are decent enough to keep the team from nose diving.  Besides being tied to Schaub’s development, the Texans’ improvement will also be tied to the defense’s improvement.  With Mario Williams and Demeco Ryans they have a couple of legitimate stars, but the rest of the cast is young and unproven.  If it gels the Texans should eek into the playoffs.  If not, they’ll have to wait another year.

 

Indianapolis Colts – It will be interesting to see how this team fairs without Tony Dungy guiding the ship.  As long as Peyton Manning is playing QB they will not drop off significantly but I think the defense will keep them from competing for a championship.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars – They seem to have solved their problems at WR but they do not have much behind Maurice Jones-Drew.  There isn’t really any reason to believe they will be much different than they were last year – a non-factor.

San Diego Chargers – Still a very talented team that has yet to reach its potential.  Will that ever be possible under Norv Turner, I’m not sure.  At least they will have Merriman running freely once again.  That along with the weakness within their division puts the Chargers in a position where they will most certainly make the playoffs.

 

Oakland Raiders – Jemarcus Russell looks like he’s finally getting comfortable with the pro game and his talents should finally be on display.  Oakland can also run the ball.  Now instead of being hamstrung by a rotten offense, it looks like the defense has become a problem, in particular the D-line.  They should no longer be a painful team to watch play, but I don’t see how they are going to be able to come up with many more wins in this conference.

 

Kansas City Chiefs – As long as Matt Cassell stays healthy this team will be much more competitive but just how much they will improve is just too hard to figure out at this point.  My guess is they will win something like 5-6 games.

 

Denver Broncos – The Broncos have been heading downward for some time now and the drop off in talent at the QB position will only make it worse.  I like their 1st round draft picks but I’m surprised to see Robert Ayers standing up.  I pictured him more as a down defensive end.  Anyway, even if the defense improves from where it was last year, it’s not likely they will be able to score as many points.  Not only that, it appears the Raiders and Chiefs are not quite as pathetic as in recent years so it could be a long season for the Mile High faithful.

 

In summing up the AFC picture I see 4 distinct groups of teams:

The sure things: New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Diego

Best of the rest: Tennessee, Miami, Houston, Indianapolis

Still lacking what it takes to compete with the big boys: New York Jets, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Jacksonville

In need of a miracle: Buffalo, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver

 

New York Giants – I feel pretty confident in my evaluation of wide receivers.  A couple of seasons ago, people were down on the Packers receivers but I had faith in Jennings, Driver and Jones and they exploded for a big year.  Now just because everyone is down on the Giants receivers I’m not necessarily buying it.  But in this case, everyone is RIGHT!  The Giants receivers aren’t very good.  Smith is a 2 or a 3 on most teams.  Moss and Manningham have a bit of talent but neither will be a #1.  Nicks looks inconsistent and will be prone to rookie mistakes.  Hixson looks a little uncoordinated to me.  Tyree is a stiff!  Tyree made one lucky catch in the biggest game of the season but he doesn’t make the roster on most teams in the league.  But the Giants can rush the ball and rush the passer meaning they will remain one of the top teams in the conference.  Whether the lack of talent at WR will keep them from winning the conference is the $64,000 question.

 

Philadelphia Eagles – Eagles teams always seem to do well along the line of scrimmage.  The Eagles’ biggest problem in the McNabb era, with the exception of the T.O. years, is that he hasn’t had a go to receiver.  I don’t know if Maclin will ever be that guy but I certainly don’t expect it this season.  The nice thing is that he, along with some of the other young WRs on the squad, has given that position an overall upgrade.  That might be enough to keep McNabb from having another perplexing slump during this season.   It seems like the Eagles have more injury problems than most teams and that’s a concern.  There is also a question as to whether or not the new defensive coordinator can get the team playing to the level it did under Jim Johnson.  I don’t see the Vick signing as being a factor one way or the other.  They are a team that you’d like to pick to win the conference, but not without reservations.

 

Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys should have a good running game and when Tony Romo is scrambling and making plays the Cowboy offense is hard to stop.  In spite of this, the team still managed to miss the playoffs last year.  That doesn’t say much for their defense.  I don’t see how the off season comings and goings give much hope for improvement.  Therefore, I’m not surprised one bit if the Cowboys miss the playoffs again.

 

Washington Redskins – Last year I bashed the Redskins because Jason Campbell did not impress me.  Then he went out and had a great start to the season.  I was wondering what kind of wizardry Jim Zorn possessed.  Then in the 2nd half of the season, Campbell seemed to regress to his previous performance level.  It makes it hard to figure out which Jason Campbell is going to show up.  If he doesn’t play at a high level consistently the Redskins won’t win.  Haynesworth probably gives them a stronger defense but it was never that bad to begin with.  The real key is Campbell.

 

Minnesota Vikings – I’m not sold on the “greatness” of the Viking defense.  It’s good but it’s not in the same league as the Ravens or Steelers.  If Ray Edwards starts bringing consistent pressure from the left end position, then the Vikings pass defense may start to keep up with its excellent run defense.  Offensively, no Tavaris Jackson means things should go more smoothly.  In the past, the Vikings have not done well when expectations were high and expectations won’t get any higher than they are this year so it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

Green Bay Packers – The offense has looked lethal in the pre-season.  It looks like points will not be hard to come by.  Dom Capers or not, the defense will probably be better off than it was last year.  Wait and see if Rodgers has better success in close games this season.  If so, the Pack bounces back.

 

Chicago Bears – The Bears will be able to score points finally and their defense should still be pretty good.  Their biggest problem is that the Vikings and Packers are also on the upswing this season.

 

Detroit Lions – Going into last season I figured Jon Kitna would benefit from having Calvin Johnson and it would keep the Lions in games.  I did not foresee how abysmal the defense would play.  Once Kitna was injured, it was obvious the Lions didn’t have a prayer.  The quicker Stafford can catch on the better for the Lions because Daunte Culpepper is not the answer.  I think they have had a number of decent off season acquisitions and should be improved but it’s still hard seeing more than a few wins from this bunch.

 

Atlanta Falcons – It’s going to be hard to get this offense off the field with the addition of Tony Gonzalez to what was already a very competent and efficient unit.  The Falcons should be able to control the ball and score enough points to make up for the youth on the defensive side of the ball.

 

New Orleans Saints – For awhile, I had a hunch this team would be the next representative in the Super Bowl from the NFC.  But I’m still not sold on the improvements in the defense or the running attack without Deuce McAllister.   I’m not sold on the reliability of Pierre Thomas nor who they have backing him up.  That puts a lot of pressure on Drew Brees.   Even if the Saints remain incredibly potent on offense, the defense will still be a concern.  The strength of the Falcons will also be a concern.

 

Carolina Panthers – I see this team as having the biggest drop-off from last season.  They have a great running attack and Steve Smith but Jake Delhomme is one of the more confounding QBs I’ve ever seen.  He’ll look like a champ in one game and a chump in the next.  Besides his inconsistency, the defensive line is not as ferocious as it was a few seasons ago.  I don’t think they are a bad team necessarily but I think they’ve been passed up by a number of NFC squads.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I predict their record will be poor enough that Josh Freeman will become the starting QB before the end of the season.

 

Arizona Cardinals – The hex on Super Bowl losers usually comes about as a result of an injury.  An injury to Kurt Warner should not de-rail the Cards because I think Leinert can play well enough to keep them on top of this weak division.  I believe it would take a whole slew of injuries for the Cards to fall victim to the hex.  For argument’s sake, I’m going to assume the Cardinals do not get hexed and predict they outscore their opponents more than half the time.

 

Seattle Seahawks – I think there was more to the Seahawks’ dismal record last year than just the injuries to the wide receivers and Matt Hasselback.  If I’m wrong about that, they could give the Cards a run for the division.  If I’m right, they don’t win more than 7 games.

 

San Francisco 49ers – A team without a QB is no team at all in my opinion.

 

St. Louis Rams – With Holt gone now too there are no more ties to the greatest show on turf.  I think the defense was one of the worst in the league last year and they went O line with their top pick.  Bolger has new receivers he needs to get used to.  Unless I’m missing something, the Rams will have a one of the top draft picks for the third year in a row.

 

I’m having a really hard time making a prediction for the NFC.  Whereas, in the AFC, I’ve got it narrowed down to 2 teams, in the NFC I can make a case for 5 or 6 teams.

The favorites: NY Giants, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, New Orleans, Arizona

Long shots with a chance: Dallas, Green Bay, Chicago.

The next layer: Washington, Carolina, Seattle

The pathetic: Detroit, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, St. Louis.

 

Super Bowl Prediction - I finally correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner at the beginning of last season for the first time since the 49ers won their last.  What a long drought!  So the odds of me being correct two years in a row must be about nil.  After watching how comfortable Flacco looks, the Ravens have become my pick for the AFC edging out the Patriots.  I don’t know how to pin myself down on the NFC.  It comes down to which of the 6 favorites are best suited for playoff football.  The Giants are built for the playoffs but I hesitate to pick them because if they fall behind, their passing attack may not be up to snuff.  Ignoring the injuries for a moment, the Eagles appear to be stronger than they were last year where they were just 1 game away.  I see the Falcons as the most balanced team but their youth makes me nervous.  Drew Brees gives the Saints a lot of heart.  As long as Favre plays well, the Vikings appear to have everything in place.  Arizona was good enough last year and now add Beanie Wells to their point scoring machine. I’ll just go with Baltimore over Philadelphia in Super Bowl 44.