As I think about all of the information I’ve been able to gather about this year’s draft class, I’ve come to the conclusion that because it’s a little lean on blue chip talent, the drop off in talent from the top prospects all the way through the 3rd round is less precipitous than in years past. Roughly from selection #10 through beyond selection #50 the variance in the probability that the player selected will become a bona fide starter in the NFL I see as very slight. Thus, I believe if you exchange drafting earlier for an extra pick, your chances of getting more quality players increase.
Now for Oakland picking at 8, I believe if Crabtree or one of the top 3 tackles is still on the board they may still want to make that pick. But if not, I think they might be able to trade down (maybe another team wants to move up to take QB Mark Sanchez ahead of Jacksonville) and add an extra late 1st round or 2nd round pick. The Niners picking at 10 should definitely want to move down. The players available at 10 aren’t going to be much more exciting than what’s available at 30.
I’d like to make a table to illustrate my theory, however I’m not sure how to work the tabs in this forum so I will improvise.
When ranking the players to be drafted, one should assign each player a probability of that player becoming a productive starting player. The players who have a rating nearing 100% are obviously the ones who will be drafted first. My assessment of this year’s draft class is that there are very few, maybe 5 or 6 who I could put in the high 90s. Beyond that, there are quite a large number who are around .75. In past years, by the time you get to the third round, you are looking at players with about a .50 probability of becoming affective starters. I think I’d put that number a little higher this year. Given these assumptions are true, trading down makes a whole lot of sense. The scenarios below illustrate this.
Scenario 1 (Not trading down from the Niners spot at #10)
10th pick - .79 (chance of becoming a starter)
42nd pick - .67
74th pick - .55
(.79+.67+.55 = 201/3 = .67 or a 67% chance of obtaining 3 good players)
Scenario 2 (SF swaps a first round pick and picks up an extra late 2nd round pick)
29th pick - .70
42nd pick - .67
61st pick - .60
74th pick- .55
(.70 + .67 +.60 +.55 = 252/3 = .84 or an 84% chance of getting 3 good players)
I’m obviously no mathematician and this may not make perfect sense, but it should indicate that taking more players in the early rounds increases the chances of getting more good players than picking earlier. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.