SomewhereOnTheInternet.Com

After writing about just 3 teams, I realize 2 things.  One, if I keep writing things this long I’m lible to get fired from my job, and two, I’m sounding like a broken record.  I’m willing to risk getting work pissed off at me, but it might be more economical to sum up some of my team building philosophies in one post. 

Obviously, I want a good QB.  If I’m approaching a team that isn’t settled at the QB position, fixing that is my #1 priority.  This year looks like a good year to pick one up in the draft.  There are handful that  have potential.  The only situation in which I wouldn’t look to the draft to find a new QB would be if I were in the Chicago Bear’s current situation.  Right now, that team is good enough to win the NFC again if they solve their QB problem and the defensive injuries subside.  If I’m Lovie, I don’t want to wait for a Matt Ryan to figure out how to play in this league while the likes of Urlacher, Harris and Vasher grow old.  If I’m the Bears, I pray the Eagles are dumb enough to make McNabb available.  Otherwise, it’s going to be tough for them.  I don’t know of any other respectable QB with experience who will be available.  

After I have my QB, the next thing I try to do is get as many people who can block and tackle.  A winning team controls the line of scrimmage.   In my opinion, if the OL isn’t playing well, that must be addressed.  And for the defense, you can never have too many guys that love contact.  Early in the draft, I’m looking to fill these needs.

Last comes the skill positions.  I think Denver has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that quality at the RB position is ubiquitous.  So unless you’re grabbing a phenom like Adrian Peterson or possibly Darren McFadden, do not waste a high pick.  WR is more problematic.  On the one hand, the best ones are usually drafted pretty high and you may need to spend a high draft pick to get one.  But on the other hand, if you are not good at all the other positions, having a good one doesn’t make you a winner.  Look at the Cardinals.  They’ve got TWO excellent receivers and still can’t win.  And for that reason they are next to last on my list.  Last on my list is TE.  Antonio Gates and Anthony Gonzales aside, the rest of the pack is closely bunched.  It seems more a matter of how you use your TE to determine the production. 

Also, I have an overriding philosophy to build through the draft.  I do not believe it is possible to improve overnight with a bunch of free agent signings.  The Redskins have driven this point home.  The best time for a free agent signing is for a team that has most of the pieces in place.  Adalius Thomas to the Patriots makes total sense.  If the Bears could get a good veteran QB that too would make sense.  But all that aside, I look to the draft to build my team.  That’s why get so excited at this time of year and why I’m writing so much!

Oakland Raiders - As a friend of a die hard Raider fan I feel I’m required to give my two cents on what they should do.  Their fortunes in the near future rest on the ample shoulders of Mr. Russell.  His development is the key to whether or not the Raiders pull themselves out of this long funk.  I have hope for his future though I’m not 100% convinced he will turn into a productive quarterback.  My main misgiving is that Jemarcus is over-confident in his physical skills and doesn’t fully understand the scope of how much of a mental challenge it is to play QB in the NFL.  Whether or not he accepts that challenge and takes the necessary steps to overcome the obstacles that lay before him, will decide his fate and the fate of the Raiders.  Please allow me to expand on my thoughts about young QB mentality for just a moment.  QBs coming into the league arrive with a variety of mindsets.  Some are over-confident and some lack confidence.  Like in any endeavor, it’s probably best to be somewhere in between.  But regardless of where a QB’s mindset is coming to a team, where that team is at from a talent standpoint, and what that team asks the young QB to do will have monumental effects on how that QBs career will progress.  If you have an over-confident QB, it’s probably best to get him as much playing time as possible.  Once faced with the degree of difficulty entailed, that slice of humble pie should motivate him to look for ways to improve.  On the other hand, if you get a QB who may be lacking in confidence, sitting him and letting him observe I believe is the best approach.  If you stick a guy in with shaky confidence and he gets overwhelmed by the situation, he may get so beaten down mentally that he will never trust himself.  You don’t ever want a QB thinking the game is too hard because that is simply not the case.  I mean we are talking playing QB here, we’re not trying to cure cancer.  At every snap a QB has a number of keys to read and must make the right decisions really fast … but that’s it.  That and be able to deliver the ball accurately to any spot on the field and that sums up playing QB.  Most QBs who progress to the NFL have the arm and accuracy, it’s that making the right decisions really fast part that seperates who will succeed and who doesn’t.  Some QBs never understand that part about being really fast.  I would say two of the poster boys for this problem are David Carr and Rob Johnson.  I hope Matt Leinert doesn’t wind up like the two of them.  He was so far superior to his peers in college he may not realize how great a leap it is to play in the NFL and that right now he is behind.  I hope he grasps this and catches up.  Sometimes a young QB has gifts that allow him to have success without understanding he must make decisions really fast.  Daunte Culpepper and Michael Vick each were able through their physical gifts to buy extra time to throw the ball.  It makes for some terrific plays but in the end it stunts their growth as a QB because they are not speeding up their mental game which is key.  So now if I may tie this all back to the Raiders,  I worry that Jemarcus could fall into the habits of Culpepper and Vick.  At least he seems less mobile and more willing to hang in the pocket than those 2 and that should force him to speed up.  I would also like to force him to admit that he has a lot to learn.  Even with the difficulties he’s had in his limited action he seems unwilling, at least publicly, to admit that he has a long way to go and a lot to learn.  As a Raider fan you should be hoping he understands this.  So the big decisions to be made for the Raiders do not involve the QB position.  I hear occasional doubts in the media about Lane Kiffin’s future.  Gosh, let’s hope the kid gets at least another year at the helm. (I can’t believe I’m calling a coach a kid)  I think any Raider fan would agree that a revolving door at the head coach is detrimental to the team.  I suppose I should have waited until after the end of the season to write this blog so I could see exactly where the Raiders will be drafting.  If they are not in the top 3, I suspect they won’t have any chance at Darren McFadden.  When I look at how productive Justin Fargas, who only this year realized what it means to run hard, was behind the current offensive line, I begin to drool at the thought of McFadden in the backfield.  And a home run threat like that in the backfield will only make things easier for Jemarcus.  But alas, I should face reality and assume he won’t be available.  The draft will be deep at RB and the Raiders could use more help in that area, but I’d wait and pick someone in the lower rounds.  The Raiders are also in need at the WR position but again, I don’t like drafting a WR high when I have needs in other areas.  Speaking of their WR position, I would jettison Jerry Porter if it would give me salary cap room.  He’s just not productive enough to be a #1 WR.  I would keep Ronald Curry as long as no one is dumb enough to try and make him the #1 WR.  He’s a decent #2 WR and a great #3 WR, but I wouldn’t expect much more out of him.  It will take a bit of creativity to make sure the Raiders go into the next season with 3 talented WRs.  The O line has played much better this year than the past year and I suspect a lot of that has to do with scheme.  Penalties seem to be their worst problem and for some reason that always is a problem with the Raiders.  That’s not a problem that is easily solved by changing personnel.  Still, if the BAA is an OL when it’s time for the Raiders to draft I’d go ahead and take one.  It can’t hurt.  Or if the BAA is a defensive player I would go that direction.  The Raiders defense was decent this year.  Like a lot of defenses - I’d say more than half - its performance depended on how well the offense was playing.  If the offense was in the tank, the D couldn’t withstand the pressure and would crumble.  If the offense was scoring and made the other team’s offense 1 dimensional, the D would flourish.  It takes a special player like a Brian Urlacher, Shawn Merriman or Ray Lewis type to make a good defense great.  Look at where those guys were drafted - none in the top ten.  Translation:  finding that special player is hard to find.  The thing to do is keep drafting for defensive depth and hope one of the guys you pick turns into something special.  So here again, with the Raiders I’m talking about a team that needs enough help in most areas where I’d be drafting the BAA.  At least in the Raiders’ case, as opposed to the Lions and Dolphins, they do not need to shop for a quarterback.

I am conflicted when it comes to Eli Manning and just wanted to get this off my chest.  One, I don’t like the NY Giants nor am I a fan of Tom Coughlin so it should be pretty easy to root against Manning.  Second, I was one of the few people who could not understand why he was the top rated player in his draft class BEFORE the draft was held.  I was throwing my hands in the air in disbelief.  I’d watched Manning play and he seemed decent.  But there was nothing about him that made me think of Elway, Marino or even his brother.  So why was he the consensus #1?  It befuddled me.  I should be happy with his struggles because it only confirms my early opinions.  But I can’t root against him.  I hate so much to see QBs flop, especially when they are first rounders, that I have to pull for him to play well.  Ideally, I would like to see every NFL franchise have a solid “franchise” QB.  Can you just imagine how much more entertaining the games would be if that were the case.  It’s my dream.  Therefore, I have to hope that I was wrong about him and that he turns out to be better than I expected.

Detroit Lions - Here is another problem team that has been occupying my thoughts.  Don’t get me wrong.  I’ve been enjoying the fact that they have been pathetic under the guidance of Matt Millen but if I was running the show I certainly would want that to change.  Geez, it’s not just under Millen’s watch have the Lions been pathetic.  Since, the 1970 merger they have had exactly 1 playoff victory.    That’s beyond woeful.  When they had Barry Sanders at least they made it to the playoffs fairly regularly, but won only 1 game.  And since Barry Sanders, they have done nothing but stink.  To change the fortunes of the Lions may be as great an endeavour as putting a man on the moon.  I think Matt Millen has been given plenty of opportunity to show that he is not up to the task.  This doesn’t surprise me.  I could not stand him when he was commentator in the booth for both CBS and then Fox.   He was so arrogant.  He could never admit that he didn’t always have the right answers.  I find it very telling that you never see him making television appearances these days.  His ego is bruised.  I bet he’d be everywhere if the Lions were winning.  It was pitiful that he moved into Fox’s #2 position as color commentator.  I’d much rather have Tim Ryan as the color commentator in a game I’m watching and that’s not just because he went to high school with me at Oak Grove.  Tim Ryan simply tries to provide as much helpful information and analysis as he can.  Too many NFL commentators get their over-inflated egos in the way trying to prove they are smarter than everyone else.  It bugs.  But back to the Lions’ problems.  I think everyone would agree with me that they need to replace Jon Kitna as QB if the Lions are ever going to be something beyond mediocre.  Each of the past two seasons I’ve been against the decision to make him the #1 starter because I think the best he could do would be to help a team eek into the playoffs but go no further.  I want to go further or fail miserably trying.   I’ll give the Lions the benefit of the doubt for not drafting Brady Quinn last year.  I would have liked for them to go for Quinn and hope he wasn’t a bust.  However, maybe the Lions were not convinced Quinn would develop into a consistent starter and decided to ride Kitna one more year and then look for a QB in this year’s draft which seems to be deeper at that position.  If that was their thinking I have no problem with that.  Yet the jury obviously is still out on Quinn and if he becomes a solid 10 year starter somewhere, I think the Lions blew an opportunity no matter how good Calvin Johnson plays.  (Calvin Johnson will never be great until the Lions have a good QB, OL, etc.)  So obviously I’d be looking at the QB position in the upcoming draft.  The Lions record may keep them out of the top 10 picks, but no matter.  I’m sure there will be more than one of the QB prospects on the board when it is their turn to pick.  For some reason I can see Mike Martz having a thing for Colt Brennan.  But if I were in charge of the Lions Mike Martz would be working for some other team.  Offensive genius as he may be, I don’t think he dots his “I”s or crosses his “t”s when it comes to preparing his team and that is why it seems they are shooting themselves in the foot half the time.  Either that, or his schemes are so complicated, the players are incapable of consistently meeting the standard required.  Even simple things like getting a play in the huddle on time so you don’t have to burn a timeout seems way down on the priority list on a Mike Martz team.  I can’t stand that.  I want a coach with the opposite philosophy.  I don’t want the coach to delve into his bag of tricks until his players have proven they can get the basics done.  But I don’t want to go all the way to the other end of the spectrum either, like a Marty Schottenheimer.  True, his teams will generally be pretty solid because they do not make as many dumb mistakes as other teams, but the problem with Marty is that he ONLY plays not to lose.  Sometimes, especially when you are up against a team that can match yours in talent, you’ve got to gamble and play to win.  I wouldn’t blame this characterisitc on all of Marty’s team’s playoff failures, but I do believe it is factor in most of them.  So I’m looking for a coach somewhere in between Martz and Schottenheimer.  Is Rod Marinelli this man?  It’s hard to tell.  He’s so quiet.  I am not like the average fan who’s reflex it is to want to fire the coach at the first sign of trouble.  I’m more patient.  But in general, I would favor an offensive minded head coach because I want him to be able to work closely with the QB.  I know, I know.  There are certainly other formulas for success.  Look who’s on top lately: Dungy, Cowher and Bellichek - all defensive coaches.  But on the other hand, each has been helped out immensely by having QBs that know what they are doing.  Nope, the more I think about it, the less likely I would be inclined to keep Rod Marinelli.  For one, in my opinion the players are not inspired by him.  For whatever reason, he seems to lack the charisma of someone like Bill Cowher that gets the team to play at a frenzied level.  That, and the fact that he is not an offensive minded coach and will have to rely on an assistant to groom the young QB I’d be drafting makes me think I should make the change.  One defensive minded head coaching candidate whom I would give lots of consideration would be Mike Singletary.  If I could be assured that he wouldn’t be too impatient with the young QB, and would hire an offensive coordinator that was interested in scoring points and not winning games 13-10 he’d be my guy.  I know he’d definitely have the respect and attention of the players.  He’s a natural leader.  Looking at the on the field issues confronting the Lions, their offense has been built backwards.  They have talented WRs and a decent backfield when healthy.  The O line has seemed to struggle this year but it’s hard to tell where it actually stands given Martz’s reluctance to actually run the ball.  Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams are young enough I think it is possible to keep them on the team long enough that they will still be viable starters when the new QB is finally producing.  In the meantime, I’d be pouring all of my offensive resources into making sure the line in front of him is not a seive.  Defensively, it’s also hard to figure out exactly where Detroit stands.  They were playing much better early in the season.  I’d have to go back over each game and find out if the drop off is due to key injuries or the level of competition they were facing.  Regardless, I’d still be looking to improve it.  I’m inclined to look to the draft for a talent infusion instead of the free agency market, but knowing I’m probably going to take a QB with my first pick I’m probably going to have to at least consider a free agent signing if I’m going to get someone who’s going to help immediately.  The bottom line is that in all the years that Detroit has been pathetic there has been one common thread.  They’ve never had a truly great QB.  Now is the time to stop looking for stop gap solutions and find the right guy and stick with him.  That’s what I would do.

(I won’t know which QB I would want to draft until after watching Senior Bowl and Combine coverage on the NFL Network.)

Bill Parcells was just hired as the Dolphins VP of Football Operations.  That has got to be the coolest job in the world.  I don’t mean for the Dolphins, specifically, I mean for any NFL team.  I guess that is why Fantasy Football is so popular - it allows each person to play GM.  The problem with Fantasy Football is that it is pure fantasy.  It’s got nothing to do with how to truly build a team.  It’s a crap shoot.  I’d rather fantasize about what I would do with a real football team. 

Here are my thoughts on what I would do with each team as of late in the ‘07 season:

Miami Dolphins - I might as well start with them, being that they just hired the most high profile VP of Football operations.  Also, since they have the number 1 pick, their moves will be the topic of much debate.  This team obviously is so far away from being a contender, there are just too many issues to be covered in this synopsys.  Let’s for now just consider some of the issues Mr. Parcells will be faced with from the start.  I think the first thing any VPFO should look at when coming to a team is the QB situation.  To start anywhere else is a mistake.  I know, I know.  The Baltimore Ravens won a Super Bowl without a QB, but that is a longshot.  The right solution for the Dolphins QB situation is a little tricky.  Right now, they have a potential QB of the future in John Beck, but that’s what makes it tricky.  He isn’t DEFINITELY the QB of the future which makes the decision cloudier.  Anyone who thinks that Cleo Lemon is a possibility as the QB of the future should just stop reading this blog right now because this is all going to be over your head anyway.  Maybe I can sum it up for you.  When a back-up plays at his very best, his performance can nearly match the average performance of the starter.  But no one plays at their very best all of the time.  The starter has a higher ceiling than the back up and will play at a higher level more of the time.  A mistake a lot of fans make is they see a back up come in and play great and think that’s how they will play all the time.  Usually after a few games, they are confronted with the reality.  The back up isn’t good enough to be a starter.  OK, enough ranting, back to the Dolphins.  If Parcells decides that Beck will never be “the guy” he can just go ahead and start looking for a new QB right now.  I think the best place to look would be the draft.  There are a lot of QBs coming out this year with potential.  The Dolphins are going to be re-building so there’s no point in grabbing a veteran in his prime if the rest of the team isn’t at that level.  Also, I don’t think a trade for Brady Quinn would be a good idea unless someone clearly saw that he would be better than who’ll be available in the draft.  I don’t see that.  Another possibility, but a lot of things would have to fall into place for this to happen, would be to play Beck for a year and make a better evaluation of his future.  If after a year of playing, it becomes clear that Beck isn’t good enough, maybe the Dolphins would be in position to draft Matthew Stafford the following year.  I realize I’ve totally overlooked Trent Green but I hope for his sake he retires.  He’s twice now has had scary head injuries and I hope he gets out before he winds up with some permanent damage.  Anyway, he’s up there in age enough, he really doesn’t factor into the Dolphin’s future.  Speaking of not factoring into their future, decisions have to be made on Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor.  These are two of my favorite players based on their conduct on and off the field but one must wonder how many productive seasons they have left, especially Thomas who hasn’t been healthy through a season for some time now.  I’m against guys retiring when they still have tread left on the tires (I never was one of the people pushing for Brett Favre’s retirement) so I wouldn’t be kicking Thomas or Taylor out the door.  Thomas has to decide for himself if he’s going to ever be healthy enough to be productive again.  Based on his desires, I’d see what the Dolphins could do for him.  Taylor on the other hand I think will continue to be productive.  I’d do my best to keep him if he isn’t hell bent to go play for some contender.  Great pass rushers don’t come along that often.  Because of the Ronnie Brown injury, the RB position is also a question mark.  Having the first pick in the draft, it will be tempting to grab Darren McFadden, especially seeing how well Adrian Peterson has turned out.  But I wouldn’t go there.  For one, I think the Dolphins have more pressing needs even if they decide not to draft a QB.  Second, I think the draft is deep enough at the RB position this year that I could pick up someone productive in a later round.  I would also count on having Ronnie Brown back at some point.  Notice Ricky Williams doesn’t even enter into my thinking.  He’s not worth the trouble.  No matter what type of guy he is or no matter what his current status is with the league’s substance abuse policy is not of my concern.  My concern is how he performs on the field.  And as far as that goes, I’ve never found him to be anything special.  He has been good, but not great.  He’s not an LT or and Adrian Peterson though you would think he would be given all of the media attention his career has received.  To me that’s all just dumb media “groupthink.”  The reality is that he has enough talent to make some rosters but is no where near good enough to make plans around.  I’d forget him.  So having said all that, what would I do with the Dolphins number 1 pick.  I think I’d give Beck another shot and not draft a QB.  I’d find the best guy along the line of scrimmage and grab him.  If my evaluations tell me Dorsey from LSU is going to be a future pro bowler, that’s who I get.  It is my philosophy that once a team is good on both lines of scrimmage and has a competent QB, the rest pretty much takes care of itself.  The rest of the draft is easy for the Dolphins.  They have enough needs that they can just pick up the BAA (best available athlete) with the rest of their picks.

That got longer than expected.  I’ll have to do the rest of the team in subsequent posts.

It hit me like a ton of bricks.  It’s so simple and makes so much sense.  This surely must have been proposed by somebody at sometime.  Why doesn’t the NCAA hold the playoffs BEFORE the bowls.  The results of the playoffs would then determine the bowl match ups.

This is how I see the system working:  In the two weeks following the Conference Championship games where there are nothing but lower divison games being played, Division I would hold an 8 team playoff.  The 8 teams would be made up of the Conference champions for the 6 BCS conferences and 2 “at large” picks.  The teams would be seeded and all 8 teams would play the first weekend.  The 4 losers would be assigned to two bowl games, and the 4 winners would play the following week.  In the second week, the two winners would advance to the predetermined National Championship bowl, and the 2 losers would meet in one of the other bowls.

If the system were in place this year it would look like this:

After the 6 teams that legitamately earned their way into the playoffs based upon their on the field performance (winning their respective conferences) the two remaining slots will be open for endless debate.  I have taken the liberty to make Georgia and Hawaii the “at large” picks for argument’s sake.  Obvioulsy there will be people from Florida, Kansas, Missouri who may argue their teams are more deserving to receive the at large pick, but no matter where you make the cut-off there will always be an argument.  Heck, in basketball they take 64 teams and there is always a couple of schools who were not selected who whine that they should have been included.  I believe a team like Hawaii or last year’s Boise St. earn a spot in the playoffs and a chance to win it all.  In other seasons, that spot could be taken by any non BCS conference team like a Notre Dame or a BYU.  I just think it is important that all Division I teams, even if they are not in one of the big conferences, know they might have a shot at the championship if they are having a spectacular season.  This system would afford that.  Short of having a team like this year’s Hawaii, the two highest rated teams that aren’t already in the playoff should go. 

 First weekend.

Ohio St.(1) v. Georgia (8)

LSU (2) v. Hawaii (7)

Oklahoma (3) v. West Virginia (6)

USC (4) v. Virginia Tech (5)

If all the higher seeds won, the next weekend would have:

Ohio St. (1) v. USC (4)

LSU (2) v. Oklahoma (3)

The Bowl that gets the National Championship would rotate obviously, but for argument’s sake, lets just make it the Sugar Bowl this year.

Orange Bowl : Georgia v. Hawaii

Fiesta Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia

Rose Bowl: Oklahoma v. USC

Sugar Bowl: Ohio St. v. LSU

The rest of the Bowl match-ups would be determined just as they have always been.

This system should make everyone happy.  Those people who desperately feel football NEEDS a playoff would be satisfied.  The people who do not want to ruin the tradition of the bowls would also be satisfied.  It doesn’t lessen the significance of the bowls nor does it extend the season by tacking on a playoff after the bowls have been played.  In addition, no bowl would have to move from it’s traditional day and time slot.  Another added bonus is that the teams that play in the National Championship game will not be coming off such a long layoff.  That’s better for the players.  The one drawback is that it would extend the season by 2 games for 4 teams and that would be asking a lot of the players, but I don’t think there are any other playoff proposals that do any better in this regard.

This system is also flexible enough for some tweaking.  For instance, I realize that the NCAA has now added a National Championship game in addition to the traditional BCS bowls and perhaps they would like to continue this practice.  But no matter how many BCS bowls there are, or how they decide to rotate them, all they have to do is select which 4 bowls/games will have their match-ups determined by the playoffs, and the rest will go the traditional route.

Lets get this instituted and put the debate to rest for good.

After hearing last night that Mr. Blank had been dealt another bit of bad news - this time a rejection from Bill Parcells - I really started to feel for the man.  He wants so much for his Falcons to become a elite franchise, but nothing seems to be working out for him.   I wish I could help him. 

 You (my friends, the only people who ever view this website) know how devoted I am to football and would probably agree that I am a person of sound judgment when it comes to football.  Unfortunately, I have no way of conveying it to Mr. Blank.  Out of sheer desperation, I drafted a letter to him this morning.  In it, I make myself available to him for advice.  (I even invite him to take a look at this website, which may or may not be poor salesmanship.) If I have the guts to actually put a stamp on the letter and send it, what are the odds he might actually respond?  What are the odds it will actually be read by him?  Probably not good in either case.  For that reason, I wonder if it’s worth the trouble.  Also, I’m sure he gets plenty of letters from other “know it alls” and I hate to be lumped in with those losers.  

It’s only going to cost me 41 cents.  That, and the loss of pride when I feel the rejection of no response.  But what the heck.  I can handle that.  I think I’ll send it.