I needed to search about a dozen mock NFL drafts before I found a site that actually had Brady Quinn being taken number 2 by the Lions. I am befuddled by this. Not that I have all that much respect for the average sportswriter’s opinion when it comes to judging talent to begin with, but this does strike me as an extraordinary example of clouded thinking. I mean am I the only person who recognizes the fact that the Detroit Lions went 2-14 under the direction of Jon Kitna????? Not only did they go 2-14, but they did it in the lowly NFC! At least the Raiders (who had probably the worst all-time offense) had to play tougher competition week to week being in the AFC and they still managed to go 2-14. What was the Lions excuse? Okay, if the writer’s mock drafts are based on what they think the Lions will do rather than what they think the Lions should do, I can be a bit more understanding. Maybe they know Matt Millen has decided not to make a “risky” pick with the high pick because he’s swung and missed so many times with his high picks and he feels Joe Thomas is a safer pick. Or maybe they just have some inside information and know that the Lions are completely sold on Joe Thomas. Fine. I’m saying right here and now that if I were the Lions, I’d rather swing and miss with Quinn then invest the #2 overall pick in the draft on a tackle who has just as much a chance of being a bust as Quinn. I think the Lions need to shake things up. A tackle, no matter how good, is not going to change the fortunes of a franchise. A franchise QB on the other hand will. (see Patriots and Tom Brady, or the Colts and Peyton Manning) Brady Quinn may turn out to be a bust. He’s got good intangibles but I don’t know if he’s got the talent to succeed. He got really hyped up early on, the same way Eli Manning was. At least people seem to be coming to their senses a little more and are not ignoring the weaknesses in his game the way they did with Eli. Be that as it may, I still think the need for a franchise QB in order to contend for a championship is great enough that its worth taking the risk. If you don’t get good at the QB position you are just going spin you wheels in mediocrity anyway. Look at the Bears. They were a very good team made to look better because of the weakness of their conference and in the end came up short because of the lack of a good QB. Only the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team was able to win a championship without a decent QB and that’s because they had one of the scariest defenses of all time. But that’s the exception. You need a good QB. The Lions will have the shot regardless of who the Raiders pick and should take that chance.
My answer to those people who worry about taking a QB in the first round because of their propensity to be busts is that you are looking at the situation backwards. One, there are busts at every position for players drafted in the first round - maybe even more at other positions - they just don’t grab as many headlines so people tend to forget. Two, the rate of QBs who are busts may be high in the first round, but it’s even greater in lower rounds. So maybe only 1 in 3 QBs taken in the first round wind up being competent starters, but it’s probably more like 1 in 10 for QBs taken past the 3rd round. There’s only one Tom Brady. Think about that.