With the NFL combine now over and free agency just around the corner, the draft is probably the biggest sneak peak into what the Silver and Black will unveil in 2007. Almost all (except one) of the mock drafts on the web have the Raiders selecting Jamarcus Russell, QB from LSU. The one exception is an obscure site showing the Raiders selecting Calvin Johnson, WR from GT.
Russell is huge, powerful - your basic freak of nature for someone in a QB position. Basically, he’s a very large tight-end that can make all the throws. He’s raw, young and level-headed. The only bad side is his lack of apparent motivation.
Calvin Johnson is being touted as the best athlete in the draft. He jumps so high that the measuring sticks at the combine didn’t have a high enough number for his leaps. He’s a good pick - but not at #1.
If the Raiders select Russell, it’s not a bad pick. But it’s not what I would do and here are my reasons:
1. The Raiders should trade their #1 pick with Cleveland - who have shown every intent that they want Jamarcus Russell. But you say “why - the Raiders need a QB now!?!?!?”
The Raiders need many things on offense. And getting a raw QB with no mentoring from a seasoned QB at the helm increases the bust prospect. And speaking of busts, take a look at the last 20 years of all QBs taken in the first 10 spots - that’s a huge risk, especially for someone that will eat up huge cap space, will cost lots of money to sign and will command further scrutiny if (or when) things don’t work out. And the frosting on this is that the Raiders don’t have a good history of “self-developed” QBs (Marc Wilson, Marinovich…)
If you trade down with Cleveland, there’s a very good chance of grabbing their 3rd overall pick and their 2nd round pick, 35th overall.
2. With Detroit choosing the OT Thomas, the Raiders should get Calvin Johnson - the best player in the draft. He’s not 2 or 3 years away - he can play now, he will be significant, he will be motivated and he will be fast. But what about Porter and Moss?
First the Raiders should and will resign Ronald Curry as the slot. Jerry Porter, even with his new number from Tim Brown, is tainted goods - I wouldn’t doubt for a minute that he has left a sour taste on everyone’s mouth in Alameda. Until he’s (and the Raiders) traded he will put on a good show to raise his valuation. As soon as there’s a taker, the Raiders will move him. As for the unhappy Moss, I would move him now - see #3.
3. Tennessee needs Wide Receivers. The Raiders have many. Tennessee has a problem child in Pacman Jones. The Raiders need a staple corner - especially in nickel and dime situations. Carr and Jones are your double threat return men. Enough said.
4. Now that the Raiders have chosen a WR instead of a QB - what should they do about that position? Clearly it was the source of stink in 2006. I disagree - you can put Tom Brady behind that offensive line, behind that playbook, behind that coaching staff and he would retire by mid October. It was a disaster. Other rookie QBs (and this was Walter’s official rookie year) are eased into their position. Their hands are held, plays are dumbed down, everything is slowed down to help them adapt. Walters was thrown to the wolves without a solid running game, without protection, without any receiver motivated and experienced, and without solid coaching.
In October, Walters publicly scrutinized the play calling (”too simple - no slants, no swing passes, no checks”). He wanted to make a better offense by suggesting audibles he can use, and suggesting to move linemen around - sure, we don’t know what goes on inside the huddle… but as a coach, you have to listen to the QB. He’s the guy getting his head lit at every snap. This was clear frustration after being sacked 40 times - what did Art Shell do? He replaced him with Brooks - who did not win the rest of his 8 starts. In my opinion, Walters can carry this team - I don’t believe he’s been given a fair chance to show what he can do. I think anyone running for their life would look pretty inept behind the center - and clearly, he had his moments.
With Walters secured in the roster, I would try and get Jeff Garcia (free agent) as well as draft Troy Smith with the 35th pick (from the Cleveland trade). If the only knock on Smith is that he’s 6′1″, I’ll take a gamble on him. Let all 3 compete for the starting position.
5. Obviously, the 33rd pick should be for an OT - and after watching the combine, there are many good ones. Gallery is painfully slow in both tackle positions (2 years at right tackle and a disastrous year in 2006 at left tackle). For a right handed QB, I would put him back on the right side of the center but at the guard position. He’s huge and will not require a lot movement. Get a solid OT from the draft and back it up with a good free agent.
6. I would also look at replacing Jake Grove at center - for someone calling the blocking schemes, his watch has been retarded. That Raiders are not strong enough to have man-on-man blocking. And certainly Grove can’t be relied upon to call the plays. Newberry (C, Niners) wants to remain in the Bay Area and Nolan just gave him his E-Ticket out - 17 penalties in 9 years, solid play - injured but supposedly as good as new. Sound like a winner?
7. Kiffin will take care of the passing game - but he did bring in coaches from Atlanta and SF like Cable, Knapp and Rathman to put together a world class running game. Cable is a protege of But you’re not going to build that around Jordan or Fargas. This is where Lombardi (Raiders GM) needs to earn his money. Chicago’s Thomas Jones wants out of the Bears - I like the veteran leadership, and he’s fresh off a Superbowl loss - he’s hungry and can match up well with Fargas.
Conclusion
In the end, I’m just a fan. The Raiders will probably pick Russell - with the brass in Alameda saying “how can you not gamble on him given that he’s such a ’specimen’”. One noteworthy thing that I do like is that Russell proactively called Tom Martinez to work on mechanics. Tom Martinez is Tom Brady’s off-season QB coach since he entered the league - he’s well known around the NFL as the QB Whispherer.
And sure, you can say that every year, a stack of Brady Quinn’s come out but a Jamarcus Russell only shows up once in a great while. But if they keep comparing Russell to Culpepper, I’ll take my chances with Walters. Where is Daunte now?
And remember that Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin and Spergon Wynn were all QBs chosen before Tom Brady (6th round, 199th pick). And the last time the Raiders had a good QB was some journeyman named Gannon - a guy disrespected by many teams before he had a chance in Oakland. Last I checked, he couldn’t throw the ball farther than 40 yards. My point: I’m never sold on QBs in the 1st round.
I can’t recall which fishwrap wrote about Gannon coaching Walters in the off-season… how’s that for inside information.
Scott (a buddy of mine who also writes in SOTI) made an early prediction that the Packers will be the most improved team next year. I’ll go out on a limb here and say the Raiders will take that honor.