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Miami – Their defense doesn’t seem all that consistent and that’s a concern.  But I see Marshall and Henne hooking up for lots of scores and teams that score touchdowns always seem to find a way to win.  I think the Dolphins and not their more highly touted divisional rivals win the division.

NY Jets – This will be a volatile situation if M. Sanchez doesn’t play well or if D. Revis doesn’t end his holdout.  I think they will be a good team, but expectations are too high.  Plus, they have the added distraction of knowing they are under intense scrutiny.

New England – I don’t think even Tom Brady can overcome a team without a running game and a mediocre defense.  Doesn’t surprise me if New England misses the playoffs.

Buffalo – My early choice for team getting the first pick in next year’s draft.  T. Edwards has shown some signs of life in the pre-season, and that could save them from a truly abysmal record, but that’s just pre-season.  When the regular season commences he’ll have to speed up and don’t know if he’s capable of that.

Baltimore – The return of Ed Reed playing like the old Ed Reed to me is the key to making this good team a Super Bowl caliber team.

Cincinnati – Their offense should be flying.  But it doesn’t.  Why?  Defense is strong but doesn’t dominate.  Why?  It’s because they’re the Bengals.  Two division titles in a row?  Child please!

Pittsburg – I think the Steelers are actually overrated by most people.  They were not playing well at the end of last year.  Yes, they have Palomalu back, but I don’t see where they’ve shored up the rest of the problems.  Add to that, the ambiguity in the QB situation and this could be a down year for the Steelers.

Cleveland – I think there is a lot of young talent on this team.  The key word being young.  Give it a year.

Indianapolis – Last year I thought it could be down year for the Colts losing both Dungy and M. Harrison.  Boy was I wrong.  I can’t see anything other than an injury to Manning keeping this team from continuing its roll.

Tennessee – I’m not thrilled about the way V. Young plays QB.  However, the offensive and defensive lines play at a very high level.  I think this team is going to surprise people.  But if they wind up in the AFC title game I won’t be surprised.

Houston – This team keeps gathering more talent and yet still cannot seem to stop the run.  Tennessee will sweep them and keep them out of the playoffs again.

Jacksonville – I’d be very surprised if this isn’t the final season of the Del Rio regime.  MJD aside, there’s a lot of mediocrity on this team.  At least they’ve removed a lot of the stiffs playing wideout.

San Diego – This team is too talented not to win this division.  That’s not saying much.

Denver – Any team with K. Orton at QB is unimpressive.

Kansas City – Any team with M. Cassell at QB is unimpressive.

Oakland – Any team with J. Campbell at QB is unimpressive.

Dallas – The offensive line looks like it could be a serious problem but Romo has such great escapability and a fleet of good receivers to throw to, it might not matter. They also have a strong pass rush. 

NY Giants – They have been the least talked about team in this division over the off-season but can still generate the best pass rush.

Washington – D. McNabb is a good locker room guy; A. Haynesworth is bad.  I haven’t decided who’s going to win out.

Philadelphia – K. Kolb has to prove it to me before I back this team.  If he turns into the next J. Namath the Eagles could compete for the division.

Minnesota – It won’t be a cake walk this year, but I think their defense is a little better than Green Bay’s.

Green Bay –  A. Rogers is no longer holding onto the ball too long and this is the most exciting offense to watch right now.  On paper their D should be good but it still gives up way too many points.

Detroit – Stafford will have three quality receivers to throw to, but the defense is still several players away.

Chicago – The additions of M. Martz, C. Taylor and J. Peppers do not impress me.   Even if Cutler can comprehend Martz’s complicated system, he still has two novices at wideout.  I don’t think that will work.  C. Taylor is excellent but he won’t be on the field enough with M. Forte to make a difference.  Does J. Peppers still have it?  Was defensive end that big of a liability beforehand?  It doesn’t add up to me.

New Orleans – Nothing is stopping S. Payton and D. Brees from slicing and dicing once again.  Last year’s defense left room to improve and if it does, the NFC could have its first repeat champ since GB in late 90s.

Atlanta – This is a very good team but I don’t think it’s reached championship level.

Carolina – This will be a long season for the Panthers. 

Tampa Bay – They are the only thing keeping the Panthers from hitting the basement.

San Francisco – Could win this division with only 9 wins.

Seattle – Great job of turning over the roster of what was a bad team.  They won’t be world builders yet, but at least they are not clinching to dead weight.

Arizona – They could still win the division but I disagree with their choice of QB.  M. Leinart might not be as good as D. Anderson but there’s no way to know that because Whisenhunt bailed too quickly in my opinion.  I know D. Anderson sucks.  But the Cards took the bait.  D. Anderson can look great for stretches (this goes back to his days at Oregon St. by the way) but then he always has a screw go loose and starts throwing the ball to the other team.  It will happen again and those who deny it are delusional. C. Wells is too fragile.  Rest of the team is top notch and could easily win this division, but I see trouble ahead.

St. Louis – It’s not so hopeless anymore.  I think at least 2 or 3 teams will have worse records this year.

Super Bowl Predictions:

Longshots with no chance (or would shock the hell out of me):  Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland, Chicago, Detroit, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Seattle, St. Louis.

Teams with just a sliver of hope: Pittsburgh, Houston, Washington, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Arizona

Contenders that would surprise me: New England, NY Jets, Miami, Cincinnati, San Diego, NY Giants, Atlanta

Contenders that would not surprise me:  Indianapolis, Tennessee, Baltimore, Dallas, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans

I gotta pick two from that group.  I can see things going terribly wrong for all of them.  But I’ll go with Baltimore over New Orleans in the big one. 

 

 

I love everything about the NFL draft.  It’s mock draft season and I’m jumping in hip deep.  Unfortunately, my opinions are based on limited information.  Watching the odd game in the regular season, Senior Bowl practice, and Combine Coverage are basically all I have to go on.  I would review all of the game tapes from each player if I had access to them and the time to watch.  Since I don’t, I have to rely on scuttlebutt and the assessments of others.   (The inference that my choices would be absolutely perfect if I had access to all of the information available is completely intentional!)  At any rate, here’s my two cents.

MCNABB TRADE UPDATE:  I think the Rams will pick Bradford but I’m going with who I would pick, not who I think the teams will pick.  Because I have the Rams picking Suh, and Bradford going to Washington the McNabb trade changes who I have going to Washington and opens up a bunch of different scenarios.

RELEASE OF BULGER UPDATE:  Alas, all of those scenarios will not come into play.   The release of Mark Bulger means the Rams do not have a decent QB on the roster.  Even I would pick Bradford now if I’m their GM.  However, I’m leaving in my original entries. 

CLAUSEN PRO DAY UPDATE:  I ain’t takin’ the cheese.  Every year momentum builds for a player based upon what he does in gym shorts and talk.  I’m holding steadfast to what I saw on the field.  Clausen is a better than average college quarterback with some pro potential.  That’s it.  He is not likely to be a franchise quarterback.  Of course only time will tell, but my guess is in 3 years, the team that drafts Clausen will still be looking for their “franchise” quarterback.  That’s my belief and the reason he does not appear in my mock draft.

SANTONIO HOLMES TRADE UPDATE:  Though stunning to see how little he was traded for, I don’t think it affects my mock draft.

1)  St. Louis Rams

I understand the Sam Bradford argument:  If you don’t have a franchise QB and have the opportunity to get a franchise QB you take it.  I’ve made that argument myself.  If I followed it, I might have stuck my franchise with Brady Quinn.  That’s the danger in forcing a QB up the draft board.  So that’s the first question I ask.  Is Bradford worthy of the 1^st pick or am I reaching?  I need to truly believe he has what it takes to be one of the top QBs in the NFL.  The NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi advocates picking Bradford based on the fact that the Rams have passed on QBs in the last two drafts.  That’s a ridiculous line of reasoning and a classic example of Monday morning quarterbacking.    Just because Chris Long and Jason Smith haven’t turned out to be worthy of top 5 picks, and Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez have, doesn’t mean it’s always better to pick a quarterback.  Before those players were drafted, no one knew that’s how it would turn out.  Right now, who’s to say that Suh is not going to be a great lineman and Bradford’s not going to be an injury prone bust?  Even though I think they both will become good NFL players, my confidence is much higher with Suh.  If Bradford can’t narrow that gap after closer scrutiny, I’m picking Suh.

One aside:  I can’t believe how badly Marc Bulger is getting trashed.  You take away Issac Bruce and Tory Holt from any quarterback and put him behind that offensive line and he’ll look terrible.  I assure you, if they put Bradford in that situation, after his first year he’ll look like a bust – that’s if he’s still upright.

Pick: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

2)  Detroit Lions

I don’t think there should be any debate.  Suh looks special.  The Lions are fortunate the Rams have to go with a quarterback.  Offensive line needs can be addressed at the top of 2^nd round.  The Lions can’t pass up the opportunity to get a possible difference maker on defense.

Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

3)  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers need just about everything.  McCoy is as highly touted as Suh.  I’m not as familiar with his game, but if he’s that good, and he fits the Tampa defense, this is an easy pick.

Pick:  Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

4)  Washington Redskins

Below is my original entry before the McNabb trade.  With McNabb on the team, the Redskins should take Okung.

“Picking Bradford here contradicts a bit of what I said for pick #1.  But there’s a big difference.  Suh is no longer on the board.  I believe Jason Campbell is the biggest inhibitor to this team ascending in the standings.  Given that, Sam Bradford makes sense in this spot.  If the Rams select Bradford, I am not picking Clausen.  A lot of people are high on Clausen.  I don’t see what they are seeing.  My gut tells me he has the potential to be average, but nothing special.  That’s not enough reason to take him with the 4^th pick.  I believe Bradford on the other hand has the presence and leadership abilities to be a top quarterback.  All that said, if I’m the Redskins GM I make it really simple.  I ask Shanahan if he believes in Bradford.  If so, I take him.  If not, I’d go with Okung.  If Shanahan likes Clausen, we have a really, really long discussion.”

Pick:  Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.

5)  Kansas City Chiefs

I think what would really help the Chiefs’ offensive line would be to get Matt Cassell to stop holding the ball for so damn long.  Drafting another offensive lineman won’t solve that.  Also, there is still a potential playmaker for the defense on the board so I think that ends all debate.

Pick:  Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

6)  Seattle Seahawks

I know the Seahawks could use an upgrade at running back, but I believe at least one of the top running backs will still be there when they pick again in the 1^st round.  Conveniently for Seattle, they have their choice of the top lineman left on the board.

Pick:  Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma.

7)  Cleveland Browns

The Browns started to play pretty well on defense late last season but the defense lacks a leader.  Some people might think this is a little high for Rolando McClain, but if he turns into the Browns version of Brian Urlacher, he is a great value at number 7.  He is my favorite player in this year’s draft.

Pick: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

8)  Oakland Raiders

This is a depressing spot.  No matter which direction the team goes with this pick, the team’s outlook is bleak as long as Jemarcus Russell is the starting signal caller.  Last year, I still held out hope that the light would come on and he would take advantage of his tremendous physical gifts.  But at this point in time I don’t see the likelihood of that ever happening.  I’m not sure of the salary cap ramifications, but I would cut ties with him this off season.  Perhaps, the uncapped year would allow me to get away with it.  Even if I cut Russell, I still would not draft a quarterback at this spot.  Russell is bound to obscure any improvement I make to the rest of the roster.  That’s why this is so depressing.  As much heat as the Raider’s offensive line takes, I think when Robert Gallery is healthy, they are a pretty decent run blocking group.  Still, improving your pass protection is never a bad thing and I would consider Bulaga.  I’d also like to add a presence to the defensive line.  Because I have an early 2^nd round pick and this draft is deep in defensive tackles, I’ll take a chance on a big pass rusher.

Pick: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

9)  Buffalo Bills

Here’s another depressing spot.  I’m predicting right now the Bills will be in the running for the top pick in next year’s draft.  But that might not be such a bad thing.  They would have their choice of Ryan Mallett or Jack Locker.  I can start building the line to block for the young QB right now.  Since I don’t have much experience evaluating blockers, I will take the consensus next best in the group.

Pick: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

10)  Jacksonville Jaguars

What to do with this team always confuses me.  Part of the problem is that sometimes Garrard plays really well and they beat a good team.   Then he plays poorly and they lose to a bad team.  It’s hard to get a firm bearing on just what area they are most in need.  It’s time to go with the highest rated player left on the board but at this point, it’s not clear cut who that is.  The Jags have to play the pass happy Colts and Texans twice a year so adding a good corner is probably not a bad idea.

Pick:  Joe Haden, CB, Florida

11)  Denver Broncos

I don’t like the Broncos situation.  The new coach rubbed the star quarterback the wrong way and they had to trade him.  Now they have mediocre quarterbacks on the roster.  This means the rest of the team has to play great.  Brandon Marshall is the team’s most talented player, but he’s unhappy.  I don’t know what they are going to do with their offense so I will address the defense and look for a good fit for their 3-4 system.

Pick:  Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas

12)  Miami Dolphins

The dilemma here is whether or not to gamble on a wide receiver to fill a position of vital need or make a safer pick.  Once you start getting to this area of the draft, there really are no sure things.  Also, the rest of the Dolphins receiving corps would be just fine if a number 1 receiver was added to the mix.  Chad Henne could use a big target.  Thought it’s a bit of a reach this early, I’m going to gamble that D. Thomas is a future 80 catch, 10 touchdown type of performer.  Dez Bryant is more highly touted but his pro day made me an uneasy.  I got the impression he is not a natural route runner.  With the little information I have to go on, I just feel Thomas is more instinctive.  Since I could probably pick up Thomas with a later pick I’d be open to trading down.

Pick:  Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech

13)  San Francisco 49ers

It makes no sense to draft Spiller without decent blocking in place.  I have two picks so I can be a little adventurous with this first pick and still get my O line help with the next pick.

Pick:  Earl Thomas, S, Texas

14) Seattle Seahawks

I had a feeling the top running backs would still be available at this pick. (Gee, I wonder how I figured that out, since I’m the one making all the picks!) 

Pick: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

15)  NY Giants

Right now the Giants are ticked off that I was in the Cleveland war room and took McClain off the board.   If McClain was still on the board, this would be an easy pick with need and value coming together in harmonic convergence.  It might be a bit too high to take Weatherspoon.  With his gift for gab, he would be a hit with the New York fans and media.  The Giants’ staff would have to be in love with him to take him here.  If I couldn’t trade out of this position it would be between Spoon and Dan Williams.

Pick:  Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

16)  Tennessee Titans

I think Derrick Morgan is a potential pass rushing replacement for Kyle Vandenbosch.

Pick:  Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

17)  San Francisco 49ers

Now I need to get some help for the O line and conveniently, my favorite of the remaining tackles is still on the board.

Pick:  Charles Brown, OT, USC

18)  Pittsburgh Steelers

With Holmes gone I suspect many would take Dez Bryant.  But I think Wallace is a budding #1 WR and he’s got solid guys around him.  Further, I just can’t get behind Dez Bryant.  Big Ben needs a lot of pass protection and the running game hasn’t been what it used to be.  I try and get stronger on the O Line.

Pick: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

19)  Atlanta Falcons

Based on the assumption John Abraham is past his prime, I’m going try and reload behind him with the best pass rusher left on the board.

Pick: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan

20)  Houston Texans

I was holding out hope that Earl Thomas might still be on the board but that’s not the case.  Though I worry Kyle Wilson’s height is going to be a bigger liability at the pro level than in college, the consensus is that he’s the best secondary player left on the board so I take him.

Pick: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise St.

21)  Cincinnati Bengals

Jermaine Gresham would be the recommendation from many in this spot.  I don’t like taking a TE in the first round unless I know I’m getting Tony Gonzales or Vernon Davis like quality.  I’m assuming the Bengals will not sign T.O. and I will go for speed to work the middle of the field instead of size.

Pick:  Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame

22)  New England Patriots

Dez Bryant’s workout scared me, but he’s got some traits of a number one receiver - something the Patriots will need before long as Moss ages or moves on to another team.  The extra 2^nd and 3^rd round picks allow me to gamble and take Bryant.

Pick:  Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St.

23)  Green Bay Packers

Anthony Davis is one of the highest rated players left on the board and offensive line help is a need for the Packers.

Pick:  Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

 24) Philadelphia Eagles

I suddenly don’t know what direction this team is heading.  My feeling on the McNabb trade is that if Kolb turns out to be better than McNabb, than it’s a good trade.  If not, it’s a bad trade.  I don’t know what indication the Eagles have that he can be better, but I’m not on the practice field.  The Eagles have lost a lot of depth on the O line recently, but I can’t stray too far from the board and I pick up a good value.

Pick:  Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri

25) Baltimore Ravens

In a game against the Bengals last year, the corners of the Bengals outplayed the corners of the Ravens and I believe that was the difference in the game.   I feel safe picking a guy who’s twin brother has already had a decent season in the league.

Pick:  Devin McCourtey, CB, Rutgers

26)  Arizona Cardinals

I almost went away from Jerry Hughes but then I remembered my mantra that rarely do rookies have as big an impact in the regular season as people imagine on draft day.  Hughes can line up behind Porter and be ready when Porter departs.

Pick:  Jerry Hughes, LB, TCU 

27)  Dallas Cowboys

I’m going to take a chance that B. Campbell can fill the Flozell Adams void. 

Pick: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

28)  San Diego Chargers

Most mock drafts I see have R. Matthews going to San Diego.  I think he’s a great value at this pick.  If Houston doesn’t pick him and he falls this far, that’s the perfect set of circumstances for the Chargers.

Pick:  Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno St.

29)  New York Jets

Suddenly the Jets have a pretty loaded roster.  They have the luxury to add another athlete to their defense.

Pick:  Everson Griffen, DE, USC

30)  Minnesota Vikings

People are going to think I’m nuts, but I’m a Viking fan and I dread the coming abyss when Favre hangs it up.  Tavaris Jackson will never be more than a back up in my opinion.  With the exception of some glaring weaknesses in coverage, the Vikings have a loaded roster and can gamble a little with this pick.  I would draft Tebow and let him sit behind Favre.  This could settle the Viking’s future QB dilemma.  Some commentators say Tebow will take three years to develop but that doesn’t make sense to me.  His development shouldn’t take any longer than any other QB coming out of college.  Just because he’s making changes to his mechanics doesn’t mean his process will take longer.  He’s already speeding up his delivery and I’ve thought all along that when he does finally release the ball, it goes where he wants.  I’m not worried about that.  I only worry about whether or not he can make the mental adjustment.  But I worry about that with nearly every college quarterback.  At least with the Vikings there’d be no pressure to have him play in his first year.  I’d roll the dice on him because I think he’s a born winner and has the chance to be something special.  Those who want to move Tebow to H-Back are crazy.  They are basically saying he cannot ever develop as a passer.  I don’t see how you can make that call at this point.  Besides, I don’t even think he’d be much of an H-Back.  His physical gifts will make him sturdy in the pocket, but he’s not elusive in the open field and he cannot run over pro defenders.  I’m giving him the chance to be my QB of the future. 

Pick:  Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

31)  Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a team that sticks to their board and I like their style.  Some say the offensive line was a weakness last season but I don’t recall Peyton spending a lot of time on his back.   The Colts previously had been consistently weak on run defense, but that has improved.  I am going to make an educated guess on who is highest rated player on their board.

Pick:  Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

32)  New Orleans Saints,

Big plays in the red zone saved the Saints bacon last year.  I think their D needs a serious upgrade in athleticism.

Pick: Daryl Washington, LB, TCU

33)  St. Louis Rams

Could very well get an enticing deal for this spot, but if not, get some blocking for Bradford.

Pick: Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida

34) Detroit Lions

Though we are pretty far down on the O Line draft board already, I think there is one more out there that can be of help.

Pick:  Roger Saffold, OT, Indiana

35)  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If he fell this far, I don’t see how Tampa’s coach could resist trying to turn Mays into the next John Lynch.

Pick:  Taylor Mays, SS, USC

36)  Kansas City Chiefs

A first round talent that would fit Crennel’s defensive scheme is still on the board.

Pick:  Jared Odrick, DE, Penn St.

37)  Philadelphia Eagles

Javier Arenas was the highly touted player but Kareem Jackson was the one making plays every time I tuned to one of the Tide’s games.

Pick: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama

38)  Cleveland Browns

Lots of choices at defensive tackle available, but they’ve got S. Rogers and play 3-4.  So maybe go for corner help.

Pick:  Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida St.

39)  Oakland Raiders

Here’s the reason I selected the potential freak pass rusher with my first pick.  I knew this draft was loaded with defensive tackles.

Pick:  Brian Price, DT, UCLA

40)  San Diego Chargers

Some people see this happening at the 28^th pick.

Pick:  Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama

41)  Buffalo Bills

Just need to keep adding athletes who might pay dividends a few seasons down the road.

Pick:  Linval Joseph, DT, East Carolina

42)  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The last thing the Bucs need is another stiff at wide receiver.  I cross my fingers that I haven’t just given them one.

Pick:  Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU

43)  Miami Dolphins

Whether or not they keep Jason Taylor this season, eventually they’ll need a replacement.

Pick: Koa Misi, LB, Utah

44)  New England Patriots

I’m amongst the group who prefers tall cornerbacks.

Pick:  Chris Cook, CB, Virginia

45)  Denver Broncos

It doesn’t really matter who I pick here.  McDaniel’s immaturity will have a way of screwing it up.  But they are getting old at corner.

Pick:  Jerome Murphy, CB, South Florida

46)  New York Giants

Since McClain was gone when we picked in the first round, we’ll go for a linebacker now.

Pick:  Navarro Bowman, LB, Penn St.

47)  New England Patriots

Kevin Faulk is not going to be around forever.

Pick: Jahvid Best, RB, Cal

48) Carolina Panthers

This team is in free fall.  I believe they will have one of the top picks in the draft following next season.  It’s time to get a head start on the rebuilding.

Pick: Tyson Alualu, DT, Cal

49)  San Francisco 49ers

Going for more help on the offensive line.

Pick: Jon Asamoah, OG, Illinois

50)  Kansas City Chiefs

It may be a little late to get immediate help for the offensive line, but we’ll take a chance on a project.

Pick:  Vladimir Ducasse, OT, Massachusettes

51)  Houston Texans

This draft is giving us opportunity to load up on secondary help.

Pick: Nate Allen, S, South Florida

52)  Pittsburgh Steelers

Fortunately, I hadn’t gone this far down in my draft before the Holmes trade. 

Pick:  Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota

53)  New England Patriots

I’m not sure how much stock the Patriots place on 40 times, but Spikes may be a good value at this pick.  Bellichek is good at finding roles for players.  Maybe he can find a role for him.

Pick:  Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida

54) Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals don’t have any specific needs so take the good ‘ol “BAA”.

Pick: Lamar Houston, DT, Texas

55)  Philadelphia Eagles

This is a good spot to take a chance on the behemoth defensive end.

Pick: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

56)  Green Bay Packers

It’s tough to decide at this point if there are any offensive linemen, or any cornerbacks still on the board worthy of a 2^nd round pick.  I will go for a player I actually rate higher than most.

Pick: Chad Jones, S, LSU

57)  Baltimore Ravens

I go for my favorite tight end left on the board.

Pick: Dennis Pitta, TE, Brigham Young

58)  Arizona Cardinals

Antrel Rolle being gone makes the safeties left on the board more attractive.

Pick:  Morgan Burnett, FS, Georgia

59)  Dallas Cowboys

A poor man’s Golden Tate seems like a good idea.

Pick:  Damian Williams, WR, USC

60)  Seattle Seahawks

I haven’t seen anything from him that I particularly like, but he’s fallen pretty far down the board.  I hope he’s not a stiff.

Pick:  Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois

61)  New York Jets

The Jets have really loaded up on offense through free agency and trades.  I’ll go for more depth on defense.

Pick:  Geno Atkins, DT, Georgia

62)  Minnesota Vikings

My gamble on Tebow is a pretty big gamble considering how many DBs have come off the board so far in the second round.

Pick: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, CB, Indiana (PA)

63) Indianapolis Colts

Colts could go in any direction.  Addai is injury prone and I think Manning would have fun with Gerhart’s versatility.

Pick: Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford

64) New Orleans Saints

Picking up Alex Brown shows they are in need of pass rushing ends.

Pick: Alex Carrington, DE, Arkansas State

MARSHALL TRADE UPDATE

Geez, just after posting my mock draft, my boss walks by and tells me Marshall was traded to Miami.  I had to laugh because I had the Dolphins drafting D. Thomas which I need to change, creating a domino effect on the rest of my mock draft.  Let me see if I can make some quick changes.

12) Miami; Pick:  Earl Thomas, S, Texas

13) San Francisco; Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan

19) Atlanta; Demaryious Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech

I write this letter to you as a word of warning.  History is littered with public figures who have gone from prince to pariah.  It appears to me you are headed in that direction, but not for the reason you suspect.  Your performance in this year’s Masters Tournament is remarkable considering the events of the past 5 months.  It shows what immense talent you possess.  But I found your comments after Sunday’s round to be very revealing as to your state of mind.  This bit about “I don’t come out here to finish 4^th” is not only ridiculous, but completely out of place.  I can understand being upset about not playing as well as you would have liked, but to make that kind of comment shows your arrogance.  If you could take a step back and look at the big picture, you would be able to appreciate what a special feat you accomplished.  But you are so out of touch, you somehow believe that you are entitled to victories every time you tee it up.  You ignore the fact that your fellow competitors want to win just as badly as you do.  Only your talent at hitting the golf ball is what’s keeping you ahead of them in most tournaments and nothing more.  You need to remember that you are Tiger Woods because you play great golf, not that you play great golf because you are Tiger Woods.  Greek tragedies tell the tale of heroes with a fatal flaw.  You may think your philandering was your one flaw, but that merely opened people’s eyes to the fact that you are not perfect.  If you continue to lack the ability to relate to your fellow competitors and your common man, you will continue to rub people the wrong way.  Then, no one will care if you break all of Jack’s records.  Though that would be a shame, I will not lose any sleep over it.  You, however, should strive for better.  I hope for your sake, you recognize this before it’s too late.

I disagree with the NFL’s rule change for overtime, but I can shrug it off because seldom will it come into play and won’t have a huge impact on the NFL season as a whole. 

 

But I must comment because I feel there is a principal at stake and when defending a principal, I become adamant.  No one is more passionate about the NFL than I, so I get a little uneasy when changes are made to the game.  I get especially perturbed when changes are made haphazardly in response to a misinformed and delusional fan base.  I feel that’s the case with the OT rule change.

 

The first delusion is that prior to the rule change, overtime was totally unfair.  Prior to 1993, the winner of the coin flip had no statistical advantage in OT.  Since then, the coin flip winner has had about a 60/40 advantage.  I believe the people clamoring for the new rule mistakenly believe the advantage is much greater.  Furthermore, they forget that a significant portion of the 60% who went on to win, did not win on the first possession.  I hear time and time again, proponents of the change complaining about teams getting a long kick return, getting a penalty and kicking a long field goal.  They act as though this happens much of the time.  Unfortunately, people are burdened with selective memory.  At most the coin flip is giving one side only a slight advantage.   It is not determining the outcome the way many believe.  I ask, is that a good enough reason to invent the convoluted format they’ve come up with?

 

The second delusion is the assumption the new formula that’s been concocted is assured to remove the advantage the coin flip winner possesses.  No one knows.  Will coin flip winners win more or less?  Will the losers of the coin flip suddenly gain an advantage?  I don’t believe this has been fully thought out.  It looks more to me like a knee jerk reaction to appease the people who feel the old system is unfair and not a scientifically derived solution to level the playing field.

 

Thirdly, there is the delusion the outcome based on the new format is going to give you a clearly deserving victor.  Do you really think that after 60 minutes of play between evenly matched teams, that lengthening the game by perhaps one more possession and then deciding a winner is somehow a better measure of the teams?  As if the better team ends up losing because the coin flip didn’t go their way.    When it gets to that point, it’s always going to be hard to say that one team is more deserving than the other, no matter how you format it.  There comes a time where you half to end it.  It’s not like you can play a best of seven series.

 

I heard Jeff Fisher say, “What we don’t want is for a game to end on a long kick return, a penalty and a field goal.”  Well besides the fact that it hardly happens, why not change the rule so the team winning the coin flip gets the ball on its own 20 yard line.  I wonder if that would appease the people who feel the team winning the coin flip is not earning their subsequent score.  However, the people who would be agreeable to this solution would also have to admit that all of their rhetoric about special teams being just as important as offense and defense is a bunch of lip service.

 

One of the arguments against the old overtime system is the chance the game will end with only one team getting a possession.  In this new system, that’s still a possibility, clearly nullifying that argument.

 

Jim Nantz has been outspoken in his displeasure with the sudden death format.  He even had the audacity to say the NFL’s sudden death format is akin to baseball going into extra innings and if the visitor scores in the top half of the 10^th the game is over.  That’s a classic case of comparing apples to oranges.  In baseball, you can only score when you are up to bat, and what you do in the field has no bearing on whether your team will go three up and three down in its next ups, or have a 5 run rally.  In football, not only can you score on defense, but how well you play defense directly affects when and where you start your next possession.  That’s just a dumb comparison.

 

The NFL Network’s Rich Eisen is one of my favorite on screen personalities but holy jumping, does he get anal about this issue.  Like so many people, he just can’t unclench from the notion that the coin flip is so unfair.  Life is unfair.  Let it go man.  I’m a lifelong Viking fan for Pete’s sake.  If anyone should be complaining at this moment about sudden death it should be me.  But I believe that even with the rule change the Saints would still have come out on top.  I believe that if the Vikings won the coin flip, the Saints still would have won.  They were destiny’s darlings.  As a Viking fan, it was incredibly disappointing to endure the gut wrenching loss.  But hey, it was just a football game.  The loss didn’t cost me money or change my quality of life in any way.  I wish people would likewise drop the notion that the outcome of a football game was somehow a life and death situation and just accept the roll of the dice – or I guess in this situation, the flip of the coin.

 

I heard many owners state the new system would add excitement to the game for their fan base.  I guess they feel a playoff game going to sudden death OT is not exciting enough.  I personally think that if you can’t get excited over a closely fought NFL playoff game, perhaps you are not watching the right sport. 

 

With people like Fisher, Nantz and Eisen all being proponents, it didn’t surprise me the change occurred.  Let’s just hope that it stops there.  I fear once they realize the new system is also imperfect, people will clamor for the college overtime system.  That would be a shame.  I don’t think most people recognize the difference between good football and bad football.  By the time you get to a second overtime in college the players are so beat, the level of play drops off dramatically.  How is having teams play at perhaps 75% of their potential a better way of determining a winner?  I think it’s just more foolishness. 

 

No one wants to come face to face with the cold hard facts that the whole thing is a crap shoot, no matter which system you employ.  I have an idea of my own that I think would be the most fair.  Instead of an overtime period I would just add extra time onto the 4^th quarter.  When the 4^th quarter clock hits 0:00 with the game tied, instead of stopping and having a coin flip and kickoff, you just keep playing until the tie is broken.  A team couldn’t score on the last play of regulation to tie the game and win the subsequent coin flip and get the ball right back.  They would have to kickoff.  But even this system has a problem.  With a game tied late in the 4^th quarter, the team in possession of the ball with seconds left on the clock would be in no hurry to score because they could just go into extra time.  It could drastically change the way the final minutes of games would be played out and I’m not sure that’s warranted or practical.

 

So it’s clear to me, there is no perfect solution.  When that’s the case you should just leave well enough alone.  That’s my argument and I’m sticking to it.

 

PEACE

I think a lot of people who create mock drafts make the assumption that there are at least 1 or 2 “franchise” quartebacks available in each draft class.  That’s a mistake.  Some have none.  Yet these guys who create these mock drafts end up trying to fit square pegs into round holes.  Listing Jimmy Clausen as a top 10 draft pick is a blatent example.

Anyone who knows anything about football knows that you cannot have a good football game without good quarterbacks.  And there ain’t enough good QBs to go around in the league right now.  That’s why I’m always anxious to see the new QB prospects, hoping for an infusion of talent into the NFL.  When I heard that Notre Dame was getting a highly touted QB out of Southern California I was anxious to give him a look see - to see if he had an NFL future.  The first time I saw him when he was an underclassman I was terribly dissappointed.  I thought, “well, he may have been a great high school QB and he may be o.k. in college, but he’s not the pro prospect I am hoping for.”

And that’s why early this football season when perusing the mock draft websites (just to give me some names to watch for during college games) I was flabergasted to see Jimmy Clausen listed as the top pick on more than one site.  This is idiocy and I must go on a rant.

Clausen is NOT a can’t miss franchise QB.  He’s not even close.  I re-evaluated him after seeing these shocking predictions and tried to get past the fact that he doesn’t even pass my “eye” test.  I don’t know what his exact height is, but he certainly doesn’t play to it.  He looks like a boy among men.  And I’m not talking about his baby face either.  I’m talking about his physical stature.  But I tried to get beyond the fact that he looks like he is physically overwhelmed and concentrated on his throws.  Unfortunately, it seemed every time I tuned in, Charlie Weiss had called for quick outs.  In a clean pocket, Claussen is able to get good velocity on the ball thrown to the sideline.  I was able to see his game winning drive against Washington but I’d like all the Claussen touters go back and look at that tape and ask yourself if any of the passes he completed would have been different if he were playing against air.  I mean really.  There was absolutely no pass rush and all of his receivers were at least 5 yards in the clear.  And speaking of receivers.  I wonder just how productive would Claussen have been had he not a true blue chip prospect in Golden Tate to throw the ball to.

I’m not trying to bash the guy unfairly.  Like with Brady Quinn who I hoped would turn into a productive NFL starter, I wish good things for Claussen.  The NFL can use more good arms.  But I’ve got to go with what my eyes are telling me.  He’s not a can’t miss prospect.  He’s only a prospect, no where close to being the stud I’m using my top 10 pick on.  He’s got some of the tools needed and if he’s got the instincts and work ethic the possibility for development is there.  But at this point it’s only a possibility.  It’s a big stretch to say that it’s a probability.  Heck, he hasn’t even been able to dominate at the college level, what makes anyone think he’d do more than just get by as a pro?

He’s a stretch but I don’t blame any team for wanting to give him a shot.  But you don’t use a top 10 pick on him.  Late 2nd or 3rd round is where he belongs. 

I wonder if the mock draft creators just look at the big name at the big school and just plug the name in without any analysis.  That’s what seems to be happening in my opinion.  I wonder if Claussen played for a MAC school if he’d be getting as much attention or would he be down on draft boards like Dan LeFevor of Central Michigan.  I think LeFevor is at least as good a prospect as Claussen.  But he’s being valued where he should be in the 2nd or 3rd round.  Why Claussen is being lionized I just don’t see.

 The one thing that comforts me is to know that the mock drafts, especially the early ones, seldomly look like how the draft actually comes out.  At least I know most NFL organizations are not being so foolish.  I will find it very interesting to see if any team with a high first round draft choice rolls the dice and takes Claussen.  If so, I will be shaking my head.

“Playoffs?”  I can just hear the NCAA hierarchy doing their best Jim Mora imitation.

 I’m sitting here watching Montana play Villanova in the FCS championship game thinking how ridiculous it is that this would be the most interesting college football game being played this weekend.

But if they had followed my plan, instead of nothing interesting happening this weekend with the FBS football teams, two massively over-hyped games would be taking place.  The eight teams that would have made the playoffs would have played their first playoff game last weekend - another dead weekend for FBS teams.  Those eight teams would be the six big conference winners and two at large bids.  I don’t believe you’d get much argument over TCU and Boise St. filling those spots.  Seeding may have worked out like this:

#1 Alabama

#2 Texas

#3 TCU

#4 Cincinnati

#5 Boise St.

#6 Oregon

#7 Ohio St.

#8 Georgia Tech

So just for illustrative purposes we can imagine the higher seeds winning their games last weekend.  Alabama would have taken care of Georgia Tech.  After having beaten one good defense in Nebraska, Texas overcomes another one against Ohio St.  In a score fest, TCU outlasted Oregon.  And in the intriguing match up between Boise St. and Cincinnati, Cincinnati pulled out a squeaker. 

Those results leading to this weekends match ups of Alabama v. Cincinnati and Texas v. TCU with the losers receiving their bowl bids.  In this scenario, Oregon could end playing Ohio St. in the Rose Bowl anyway. 

And it would be entirely possible that Alabama and Texas would win their games this weekend setting up the exact same championship game that we already have in place.  But the teams would have earned the right to play in the championship on the football field instead of being granted the priviledge by voters and computers making it much more rewarding and meaningful.  The other bowl match ups determined by these hypothetical playoff results would become Boise St. v. Georgia Tech and Cincinnati v. TCU.  Match ups just as appealing as what’s been selected under the current system, perhaps even more so.

Some may be asking where Florida figures into my system and have a problem with them being left out.  I’m not saying Florida is the 9th best team in the country.  I think it’s pretty apparent that they are in at least the top 5.  But this a process to try and determine a National champion and it’s a process of elimination.  In my mind, once they lost to Alabama for the SEC championship, their candidacy for the National championship ended.  Why would a team that could not even win it’s own conference be allowed to compete for the National championship?  And Florida would still have the priviledge of playing in a bowl game.  Instead of playing Cincinnati in a BCS bowl, they’d be matched up against a team like Iowa or Penn St. in another bowl.  There’s no shame in that.  In fact, sounds kind of interesting to me.

Oh wait, I think I’m hearing Mr. Mora again, “Playoffs?  You kiddin’ me?”  Dang.

 

 

I was watching Jim Mora Jr. calling out his kicker in his press conference yesterday in a little bit of disbelief.  It was mind boggling to hear a coach with that much experience whining about how his kicker could not make every single kick.  Mare had a bad game, there’s no question about it, but correct me if I’m wrong, I don’t know any kicker who’s running at a 100% success rate.  A good kicker will make 85-90% of his kicks.  Every team in the league at one time or another gets burnt by a missed field goal.  Winning teams overcome the misses, losing teams do not.

If Mare is a bad kicker then Mora only has himself to blame for putting him on the team.  After a good run Mare was let go by Miami and could not catch on with New Orleans.  The Seahawks drafted Brandon Coutou out of Georgia a couple of seasons ago but he lost the competition with Mare in the preseason.  Had Coutou been on the field on Sunday would the result have been different no one will ever know.  The point is, if Mora wants to point fingers maybe he should look at himself.

I thought teams “win as a team and lose as a team.”  I guess that does not apply to kickers according to Mora.  I bet in retrospect, after the emotions of the game have dissipated, Mora himself would recognize that his comments were not only unjust but served no purpose and he would rather not have made them. 

But this isn’t the first time he’s got into trouble with public comments.  Personally, if I ran a football team, I’d prefer a coach who has a little more control over his emotions.

New England Patriots – Before Albert Haynesworth landed on Tom Brady I was ready to make the Patriots my Super Bowl pick along with nearly every other prognosticator.  I don’t think their defense is the equal of Baltimore’s or Pittsburgh’s but it’s pretty dang good and that’s all it needs to be considering how Brady and Moss light up the scoreboard.

 

Miami Dolphins – The injury to Tom Brady had a lot to do with their meteoric rise last season.  They also had a very favorable turnover ratio helping them along the way.  The reality is that the overall roster has average talent.  The pairing of Taylor and Porter as pass rushers may help the defense, but does anyone expect Pennington to have as good a season as he did in 2008 given the level of talent at the receiver position?  With Brady back in New England, Merriman back in San Diego, the balance of power in the AFC has been restored meaning the Dolphins will need to catch some more lucky breaks in order to make the playoffs.

 

New York Jets – This is a team with a lot of potential on both sides of the ball.  Matt Ryan aside, rookie QBs usually are not able to get the job done.  Even if Mark Sanchez plays really well, I believe this team is still a step behind the AFC powerhouses.  I also want to add how disappointing it is to watch Vernon Gholston.  I wonder what causes a player’s talent for rushing the passer in college to completely disappear at the pro level.  I’ve focused on his play throughout the pre-season and it’s clear to me his legs are going dead at precisely the moment when he needs to burst.  It certainly gives me something to think about for when I look at future draft prospects.

 

Buffalo Bills – Trent Edwards is overrated and he’s working behind a very inexperienced offensive line.  I don’t know if T.O. can save him.  The defense is mediocre.  Unless Edwards elevates his play this team should plummet.

 

Baltimore Ravens – Last year Joe Flacco was still working out the kinks and the defense carried the load.  Even though they’ve suffered some losses on D, they still have a superstar at each level: Ngata on the D line, Lewis at LB and Reed in the secondary.  I’m sure their D will be as nasty as ever.  And now it looks as though Flacco has taken the next step in his development.  That’s got to be a scary prospect for the rest of the AFC.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers – This looks like the same team as last year.  Last year it was good enough but will that be the case this year?

 

Cincinnati Bengals – If Carson Palmer can return to form things will not be so dismal for the Bengals but even with the improvements in their defense they are still clearly behind the AFC powerhouses.

 

Cleveland Browns – Quinn and Anderson are both decent but make the mistakes that inexperienced QBs make.  If I were the Browns I would pick the one who is most likely to eliminate the bad habits and then trade the other.  If it were up to me I’d keep Quinn and trade Anderson.  I think I might be able to work a deal with SF and it doesn’t really matter what I get in return.  The point would be to take this team out of QB limbo.  Quinn and Anderson are so closely matched, it’s hard to pick one, but pick one!  Let your team rally around the direction it knows it’s heading.  The Browns drafted 2 receivers in Robiskie and Massaquoi that I really like.  They drafted RB James Davis who I really liked a few seasons ago but whose stock slowly dropped during his last season at Clemson.  It’s nice to see him tearing it up in the pre-season games confirming the talent was within in him all along.  The Browns also drafted Coye Francies a fellow Spartan Alum.  They have a lot I want to root for.  But the AFC looks particularly strong this season so I don’t see them making many gains.

 

Tennessee Titans – The O line must be really good because they are turning Kerry Collins into an effective QB.  And now the talent at the skill positions around him is improving.  It’s possible the defense will take a step back with Haynesworth having gone bye-bye, but I don’t see this team being out of any game that it plays.

 

Houston Texans – The Texans were going to be my sexy pick but they’ve seemingly become everyone’s sexy pick.  Most people pin their expectations on the health of Matt Schaub but I think that needs to be taken one step further.  His health to me is less important than his level of play.  If he improves to his promised potential the Texans offense should be strong.  If he founders it will be mediocre.  If Schaub gets injured, both Orlavsky and Grossman are decent enough to keep the team from nose diving.  Besides being tied to Schaub’s development, the Texans’ improvement will also be tied to the defense’s improvement.  With Mario Williams and Demeco Ryans they have a couple of legitimate stars, but the rest of the cast is young and unproven.  If it gels the Texans should eek into the playoffs.  If not, they’ll have to wait another year.

 

Indianapolis Colts – It will be interesting to see how this team fairs without Tony Dungy guiding the ship.  As long as Peyton Manning is playing QB they will not drop off significantly but I think the defense will keep them from competing for a championship.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars – They seem to have solved their problems at WR but they do not have much behind Maurice Jones-Drew.  There isn’t really any reason to believe they will be much different than they were last year – a non-factor.

San Diego Chargers – Still a very talented team that has yet to reach its potential.  Will that ever be possible under Norv Turner, I’m not sure.  At least they will have Merriman running freely once again.  That along with the weakness within their division puts the Chargers in a position where they will most certainly make the playoffs.

 

Oakland Raiders – Jemarcus Russell looks like he’s finally getting comfortable with the pro game and his talents should finally be on display.  Oakland can also run the ball.  Now instead of being hamstrung by a rotten offense, it looks like the defense has become a problem, in particular the D-line.  They should no longer be a painful team to watch play, but I don’t see how they are going to be able to come up with many more wins in this conference.

 

Kansas City Chiefs – As long as Matt Cassell stays healthy this team will be much more competitive but just how much they will improve is just too hard to figure out at this point.  My guess is they will win something like 5-6 games.

 

Denver Broncos – The Broncos have been heading downward for some time now and the drop off in talent at the QB position will only make it worse.  I like their 1^st round draft picks but I’m surprised to see Robert Ayers standing up.  I pictured him more as a down defensive end.  Anyway, even if the defense improves from where it was last year, it’s not likely they will be able to score as many points.  Not only that, it appears the Raiders and Chiefs are not quite as pathetic as in recent years so it could be a long season for the Mile High faithful.

 

In summing up the AFC picture I see 4 distinct groups of teams:

The sure things: New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Diego

Best of the rest: Tennessee, Miami, Houston, Indianapolis

Still lacking what it takes to compete with the big boys: New York Jets, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Jacksonville

In need of a miracle: Buffalo, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver

 

New York Giants – I feel pretty confident in my evaluation of wide receivers.  A couple of seasons ago, people were down on the Packers receivers but I had faith in Jennings, Driver and Jones and they exploded for a big year.  Now just because everyone is down on the Giants receivers I’m not necessarily buying it.  But in this case, everyone is RIGHT!  The Giants receivers aren’t very good.  Smith is a 2 or a 3 on most teams.  Moss and Manningham have a bit of talent but neither will be a #1.  Nicks looks inconsistent and will be prone to rookie mistakes.  Hixson looks a little uncoordinated to me.  Tyree is a stiff!  Tyree made one lucky catch in the biggest game of the season but he doesn’t make the roster on most teams in the league.  But the Giants can rush the ball and rush the passer meaning they will remain one of the top teams in the conference.  Whether the lack of talent at WR will keep them from winning the conference is the $64,000 question.

 

Philadelphia Eagles – Eagles teams always seem to do well along the line of scrimmage.  The Eagles’ biggest problem in the McNabb era, with the exception of the T.O. years, is that he hasn’t had a go to receiver.  I don’t know if Maclin will ever be that guy but I certainly don’t expect it this season.  The nice thing is that he, along with some of the other young WRs on the squad, has given that position an overall upgrade.  That might be enough to keep McNabb from having another perplexing slump during this season.   It seems like the Eagles have more injury problems than most teams and that’s a concern.  There is also a question as to whether or not the new defensive coordinator can get the team playing to the level it did under Jim Johnson.  I don’t see the Vick signing as being a factor one way or the other.  They are a team that you’d like to pick to win the conference, but not without reservations.

 

Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys should have a good running game and when Tony Romo is scrambling and making plays the Cowboy offense is hard to stop.  In spite of this, the team still managed to miss the playoffs last year.  That doesn’t say much for their defense.  I don’t see how the off season comings and goings give much hope for improvement.  Therefore, I’m not surprised one bit if the Cowboys miss the playoffs again.

 

Washington Redskins – Last year I bashed the Redskins because Jason Campbell did not impress me.  Then he went out and had a great start to the season.  I was wondering what kind of wizardry Jim Zorn possessed.  Then in the 2^nd half of the season, Campbell seemed to regress to his previous performance level.  It makes it hard to figure out which Jason Campbell is going to show up.  If he doesn’t play at a high level consistently the Redskins won’t win.  Haynesworth probably gives them a stronger defense but it was never that bad to begin with.  The real key is Campbell.

 

Minnesota Vikings – I’m not sold on the “greatness” of the Viking defense.  It’s good but it’s not in the same league as the Ravens or Steelers.  If Ray Edwards starts bringing consistent pressure from the left end position, then the Vikings pass defense may start to keep up with its excellent run defense.  Offensively, no Tavaris Jackson means things should go more smoothly.  In the past, the Vikings have not done well when expectations were high and expectations won’t get any higher than they are this year so it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

Green Bay Packers – The offense has looked lethal in the pre-season.  It looks like points will not be hard to come by.  Dom Capers or not, the defense will probably be better off than it was last year.  Wait and see if Rodgers has better success in close games this season.  If so, the Pack bounces back.

 

Chicago Bears – The Bears will be able to score points finally and their defense should still be pretty good.  Their biggest problem is that the Vikings and Packers are also on the upswing this season.

 

Detroit Lions – Going into last season I figured Jon Kitna would benefit from having Calvin Johnson and it would keep the Lions in games.  I did not foresee how abysmal the defense would play.  Once Kitna was injured, it was obvious the Lions didn’t have a prayer.  The quicker Stafford can catch on the better for the Lions because Daunte Culpepper is not the answer.  I think they have had a number of decent off season acquisitions and should be improved but it’s still hard seeing more than a few wins from this bunch.

 

Atlanta Falcons – It’s going to be hard to get this offense off the field with the addition of Tony Gonzalez to what was already a very competent and efficient unit.  The Falcons should be able to control the ball and score enough points to make up for the youth on the defensive side of the ball.

 

New Orleans Saints – For awhile, I had a hunch this team would be the next representative in the Super Bowl from the NFC.  But I’m still not sold on the improvements in the defense or the running attack without Deuce McAllister.   I’m not sold on the reliability of Pierre Thomas nor who they have backing him up.  That puts a lot of pressure on Drew Brees.   Even if the Saints remain incredibly potent on offense, the defense will still be a concern.  The strength of the Falcons will also be a concern.

 

Carolina Panthers – I see this team as having the biggest drop-off from last season.  They have a great running attack and Steve Smith but Jake Delhomme is one of the more confounding QBs I’ve ever seen.  He’ll look like a champ in one game and a chump in the next.  Besides his inconsistency, the defensive line is not as ferocious as it was a few seasons ago.  I don’t think they are a bad team necessarily but I think they’ve been passed up by a number of NFC squads.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I predict their record will be poor enough that Josh Freeman will become the starting QB before the end of the season.

 

Arizona Cardinals – The hex on Super Bowl losers usually comes about as a result of an injury.  An injury to Kurt Warner should not de-rail the Cards because I think Leinert can play well enough to keep them on top of this weak division.  I believe it would take a whole slew of injuries for the Cards to fall victim to the hex.  For argument’s sake, I’m going to assume the Cardinals do not get hexed and predict they outscore their opponents more than half the time.

 

Seattle Seahawks – I think there was more to the Seahawks’ dismal record last year than just the injuries to the wide receivers and Matt Hasselback.  If I’m wrong about that, they could give the Cards a run for the division.  If I’m right, they don’t win more than 7 games.

 

San Francisco 49ers – A team without a QB is no team at all in my opinion.

 

St. Louis Rams – With Holt gone now too there are no more ties to the greatest show on turf.  I think the defense was one of the worst in the league last year and they went O line with their top pick.  Bolger has new receivers he needs to get used to.  Unless I’m missing something, the Rams will have a one of the top draft picks for the third year in a row.

 

I’m having a really hard time making a prediction for the NFC.  Whereas, in the AFC, I’ve got it narrowed down to 2 teams, in the NFC I can make a case for 5 or 6 teams.

The favorites: NY Giants, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, New Orleans, Arizona

Long shots with a chance: Dallas, Green Bay, Chicago.

The next layer: Washington, Carolina, Seattle

The pathetic: Detroit, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, St. Louis.

 

Super Bowl Prediction - I finally correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner at the beginning of last season for the first time since the 49ers won their last.  What a long drought!  So the odds of me being correct two years in a row must be about nil.  After watching how comfortable Flacco looks, the Ravens have become my pick for the AFC edging out the Patriots.  I don’t know how to pin myself down on the NFC.  It comes down to which of the 6 favorites are best suited for playoff football.  The Giants are built for the playoffs but I hesitate to pick them because if they fall behind, their passing attack may not be up to snuff.  Ignoring the injuries for a moment, the Eagles appear to be stronger than they were last year where they were just 1 game away.  I see the Falcons as the most balanced team but their youth makes me nervous.  Drew Brees gives the Saints a lot of heart.  As long as Favre plays well, the Vikings appear to have everything in place.  Arizona was good enough last year and now add Beanie Wells to their point scoring machine. I’ll just go with Baltimore over Philadelphia in Super Bowl 44.

2009 NFL Mock Draft
 

This is my first stab at doing this.  I think the main reason I’ve never done this in the past is that I’ve never really felt like I’ve had enough information about all of the players to make any sort of authoritative comments.  But I thought it would be a fun exercise to pick who I would draft instead of trying to “predict” who teams are going to draft.  Even after seeing many of these players in actual games and religiously watching all of the NFL Network’s draft shows, I still do not have all of the information I would like.  This forces me, especially in the 2^nd round, to rely on other people’s assessments.  If I got to watch all of the film I might come up with something completely different, but this is the best I can do with what’s available to me.  One other point: there will undoubtedly be trades on draft day.  There are teams who I think should try to trade their pick, but since I’m the only one doing this, it would be too easy for me to make one-sided trades.  Therefore one of my parameters is that no trades are available.

Now to the draft!

1) Detroit Lions
To me this is a no brainer.  The fact that the Lions also hold the 20^th and 33^rd picks in the draft give them the luxury of taking a shot at Matt Stafford.  I laugh at the people who are afraid to take a QB with a high draft pick because if you miss you “set the franchise back a few years.”  This is thinking by cliche!  God gave you a brain people … USE IT!!!  One, the Lions went 0-16.  You cannot set a franchise back any further.  Two, while many first round QBs never cut the mustard, even fewer (Tom Brady excepted) drafted in later rounds ever make an impact in the league.  Peyton, Donovan, Eli, Ben, Rivers, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco – if you want someone of this caliber, you are usually going to have to expend a 1^st round pick.  Otherwise you risk having someone like Tavaris Jackson as your starting QB.  Yikes!  Talk about setting back a franchise.  If I’m the Lions I’m willing to take the risk of swinging and missing for a QB.  What have I got to lose?  Furthermore, I can “cover” the perceived risk by making “safer” picks at 22 and 33.  As far as evaluating Stafford goes, he’s got all the physical tools and he’s got a great attitude.  Moreover, he welcomes the thought of playing in Detroit.  He’s not going to pull the Eli Manning prima donna act on me.  That’s enough for me.  Some people may think Mark Sanchez will be a better QB.  Fair enough.  I like him too.  I just have a little more confidence in Stafford.

Pick: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia.
2) St. Louis Rams
Most mock drafts have the Rams picking one of the top offensive tackles with this pick.  I wonder if this is a knee-jerk reaction to setting Orlando Pace free.  While I do see the need to get someone to replace Pace, I think the Rams have needs all over the board.  The whole team stinks.  I’d be more inclined to pick the best player on the board and I think that is Aaron Curry.  First, I’d want to carefully review the game tapes to make sure he’s as good a tackler as he is an athlete.  Once I’m convinced of this, picking him makes more sense to me than picking a tackle.  I think a great defender has a bigger impact on turning a team into a winning one than a good starting tackle.  Furthermore, I think the opportunity to acquire a great defender comes along less frequently than the opportunity to acquire a good starting tackle.  I know I’ll have to address the O line problems at some point but I can’t pass up the chance to get a potentially special player for my defense.

Pick: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
3) Kansas City Chiefs
I’m miffed that the Rams took Curry but I console myself by getting a tackle to pair with last year’s rookie Branden Albert and feel good about the book ends I’ll have for the O Line for the next 10 years.

Pick: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
4) Seattle Seahawks
Once the Seahawks picked up T.J. Houshmanzadeh I saw a lot of mock drafts change from Crabtree at this spot to one of the top tackles.  I think that would be a mistake.  While T.J. is a very good receiver he’s never had to be the #1 guy.  Furthermore, he’s in his 30s.  What I am saying is that the Seahawks are far from set at the WR position.  But picture a receiving corps of T.J., Crabtree, Branch and Burleson.  Hasselback would be drooling all over himself.  You also need to consider the fact that while W. Jones will need a replacement someday, that day is not today.  Cross that bridge when you get there.  Watching Crabtree play and seeing him catch the ball I know he is something special and I don’t need to know his damn 40 time to confirm that.  People who cannot see it, have to rely on “the measurables” and to them I say too bad – enjoy your Troy Williamsons.(If Denver and another team really wanted Mark Sanchez, this might be the spot they try to move into.  If I could drop back say to Jacksonville’s 8^th pick I might still be able to get Crabtree and pick up something on the side.  Otherwise I think I’m staying put.)
Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
5) Cleveland Browns
Here’s the first spot where I would like to make a trade.  The best player on the board is Eugene Monroe but I just drafted Joe Thomas two years ago and my bad football team has much more pressing needs.  We were a seive against the run last year and we couldn’t rush the passer.  I’d like to address those situations but I don’t believe there is anyone with those capabilities in their repertoire worthy of the 5^th pick.  I probably could slide back, swapping with someone who really wants Monroe and still pick up Raji or Orakpo.  That would be the best case scenario in my opinion.  But if that weren’t possible I’d go with the defender with whom I felt the best about. (Here’s another place where Denver may try to move up if they really want Mark Sanchez.  I’d swap with them because I’m not sure any of the defensive players I’d be taking at this spot are worth the 5^th pick.)
Pick: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
6) Cincinnati Bengals
I sprint to the podium with Eugene Monroe’s name on the card.

Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
7) Oakland Raiders
Here’s where it gets interesting.  It’s too early for Maclin in my opinion.  I think he’ll probably be a productive pro but not sure if he’ll ever be a #1 receiver and in order for me to take a WR in the top 10 I want him to be a #1.  I’d like a tackle but the best on the board is Andre Smith.  I don’t want to draft him because I think he’s immature and it’s too early to draft any of the other tackles.  I decide to go out on a limb.  My defensive line could use a makeover.  Though it’s risky, there’s a player on the board who’s got the potential to be a great outside pass rusher in a 4-3 scheme.  I would take a chance on him.

Pick: Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
8) Jacksonville Jaguars
Our once excellent defense has lost a lot of key personnel and is no longer formidable.  The O line has been decimated by injuries and off field problems.  People who still project this team as a threat in the AFC are high.  The Jags will surely be in the basement of the AFC South next season and to think that can be changed by who they draft at this position is either stupidity or wishful thinking.  We’ve been really bad at picking receivers but I’m not going to try and correct the problem by reaching for Maclin.  Instead I’m picking Marc Sanchez at this position unless someone offers me the world in a trade.  Garrard is serviceable but never will be a top tier QB in my opinion.  So I’m looking to start over.  I can snag Sanchez here and let him develop behind Garrard.  Meanwhile, with the rest of this draft and subsequent drafts I can go about steadily rebuilding the team.  The key is to have the team peaking when Sanchez has developed enough to take over the helm.

Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
9) Green Bay Packers
The defense needs help and the team is switching to a 3-4.  I see Everette Brown being mentioned in this spot on a lot mock drafts.  While that makes sense to me, I’ve got the urge to go in a completely different and unexpected direction.  I picture the Packers offense in the late season with a big and fast running back pounding defenses on the frozen tundra.  I picture how that may make things easier on Aaron Rodgers.  Unless my coaches see a way to fit Rey Maualuga into our defense, I take Beenie Wells.

Pick:  Chris “Beenie” Wells, RB, The Ohio St.

10) San Francisco 49ers
Coach Singletary wants to hit people in the mouth and I’d like to provide him with players in which to do that.  I’m looking at the board and the first name that jumps out is Maualuga.  However, I already got P. Willis manning my MLB position so it doesn’t make much sense to grab the SC backer.  If the coaches wanted to get creative and go 3-4, or perhaps try to convert Maualuga to outside backer I’d oblige them and take him.  Short of that, I’m looking for a pass rusher.  I got excited about Robert Ayers during Senior Bowl week.  I know Mike Mayock thinks very highly of Ayres.  I know that we are perhaps in the minority on this point.  But I trust my gut and make him my pick.

Pick: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
11) Buffalo Bills
Obvious to anyone who’s read my above entries knows that I think highly of Rey Maualuga.  I don’t understand why he has dropped in so many mock drafts.  What?  Just because he’s missed some tackles while going for the kill shot and because he strained his hammy running the 40 in Indy?  I don’t care about that.  I see a guy who plays like his hair is on fire.  I’ve just picked up T.O. and now I can add some excitement to the defensive side of the ball with this pick.

Pick:  Ray Maualuga, LB, USC
12) Denver Broncos
I really don’t want any part of this team.  The McDaniel v. Cutler battle has soured all hope for a quick recovery from this franchise’s recent swoon.  I have a hard time “role playing” as Denver’s GM because I would never let this whole debacle occur on my football team.  Not that Cutler is a saint, but I believe McDaniel’s youth is a primary factor in his inability to handle the situation in a more consiliatory manner.  But for now I’m just going to pretend that I either keep Cutler or trade him for later picks.  With this pick I start the big task of trying to rebuild the defense.  I want someone with balast to anchor the line.  The guy I see who best fills this role is Peria Jerry.

(Post Cutler trade update:  If I don’t make a trade I make the same pick.  As I stated above, I do not like the position of this team at all.  Even with these 2 1^st round picks I think I now have a much bigger mountain to climb to make this a good team again.  I don’t think these picks are enough.)
Pick:  Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
13) Washington Redskins
I hate to break it to Mr. Snyder but even with his latest spending spree, the team is really not any closer to being a championship football team than it was last year.  The team is strong on both sides of the ball but is not going to elevate its standing until either Jason Campbell elevates his play or the Redskins replace him with someone who can.  Jim Zorn worked some magic and had Campbell playing much better than he had under the Gibbs regime but there is still some way to go.  Being that the Redskins’ success hinges on what happens at the QB position and the team has no specific area of need, I’m freed up to take the BAA on the board. (I don’t disagree with those who think they could use more help at the WR position, however I’m not going to chase with another early draft pick when I’ve got two young guys I drafted last year whose full potential has yet to be explored.)  My concerns about Andre Smith are not as great when I’m not using a top 10 pick and furthermore, if he never becomes a top left tackle he should at the very least add depth to the O line.

Pick: Andre Smith OT, Alabama
14) New Orleans Saints
In my mock draft, Beenie Wells is off the board, but even if he wasn’t I would not take him with the Saints selection in spite of the fact that some people feel he is the perfect replacement for Deuce McAllister.  You might ask why I would select him at #9 with the Packers pick, but not at #14 for the Saints.  Both teams are similarly built with good passing games and bad defenses.  My answer is that Aaron Rogers is young and the Packers have time to continue building their team piece by piece.  On the other hand, Drew Brees is in his prime.  The Saints have a chance to be a championship team right now if they can somehow improve their defense and they should throw as many resources as they can to fix it.  I hate the fact that I have only 1 pick in the first 2 rounds in which to try and improve the defense but can’t do anything about it except take the strongest defender left on the board.

Pick: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
15) Houston Texans
I think the Texans have sufficiently addressed their needs along the D Line in free agency.  There is a nice critical mass of talent that’s come together on this team and I would just try to continue to add to that.  Looking at the board there are some enticing players still available.  At first I penciled in Vontae Davis in this spot trying to round out the defense.  But then the thought of putting Maclin opposite Andre Johnson to create a lethal combination came to mind and that’s just too an enticing a proposition to pass up.

Pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
16) San Diego Chargers
I had Maclin penciled into this spot until I swooped in with the Texans and took him away.  Now I have to go back to the drawing board.  I think the obvious solution is to take Percy Harvin.  Though I’m a little concerned that he’s somewhat duplicative of Darren Sproules, getting some speed at the wide out position should be a priority for this team.

Pick: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

17) NY Jets
I can see why they would be interested in Cutler.  I’d give away this pick and more to get him.  But assuming that’s not going to happen and that there isn’t really a QB worthy at this spot in the draft I’m going to try and give Rob Ryan another toy to play with on his defense.

Pick: Everette Brown, DE, Florida St.
18) Denver Broncos
Without trading the pick I go with the biggest beast on the board.
Pick: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I am not drafting Josh Freeman with this pick.  I don’t want to groom a QB who looks to be no better than Washington’s Jason Campbell.  Besides, I just fired the head coach who was my resident QB tutor.  I don’t think any of the WRs left are worthy of this high of a pick so I’ll turn to another team need and pick Vontae Davis who by all accounts would be considered a very good value at this spot.

Pick: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
20) Detroit Lions
I don’t expect the magical results the Falcons experienced when they went QB/OT in last year’s draft, but it’s still a pretty good formula.  The decision is between Eben Britten and Michael Oher.  Oher may have more god given talent but there are some questions about his drive and work ethic.  Having taken Stafford at #1, the Lions cannot afford to miss with this pick and thus I go with the less risky of the two options.

Pick: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
21) Philadelphia Eagles
A new weapon for Donovan is in order here, and there are plenty of receivers to choose from.  The problem with the wide receivers available is that I don’t see any of them developing into a pure #1 receiver.  All will probably be more productive if they can be paired with a good veteran receiver.  So I’m going to give Donovan a different sort of target.  With his great hands and big size, Brandon Pettigrew is going to be a beast in the red zone.  That’s just what Donovan needs.

Pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St.
22) Minnesota Vikings
This is a tough spot to pick.  The Vikings need immediate QB help and are not going to find it in this year’s draft.  They could go with Freeman, however I think getting the QB of the future right now doesn’t make any sense.  So let’s just suppose that somehow Rosenfels plays better than he ever has before – not a likely scenario.  Now where is the next area of need for the team?  They could use a right tackle but it’s a little early to select one.  They could use a replacement for Sharper but I can’t expect a rookie to come in and fill that role.  They could use another end to go opposite Jared Allen and truly make their defense formidable but all of those players are off the board already.  Finally, they could use a wide receiver but I’m not sure anyone on the board at this time is going to step in and be better than Sydney Rice.  I guess my plan would be to take William Beatty and have him play right tackle for now, and move to LT when McKinley moves on.
Pick:William Beatty, OT, Connecticut
23) New England Patriots
I’d probably select whoever Bill Bellichek told me he wanted.  He seems to have a preference for cerebral linebackers.

Pick: Clay Matthews, LB, USC
24) Atlanta Falcons
I don’t think it such a horrible thing that the Eagles took Pettigrew ahead of us.  This gives us a chance to continue to fill out our roster with upgraded talent.  We can get a TE for Matt Ryan later in the draft.  For now, it’s time to shore up the defense.

Pick: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
25) Miami Dolphins
Mock draft prognosticators kill me.  Their eyes tell them they are looking at a sure talent, but they don’t trust their eyes.  They rely on the tape measure and stop watch.  Haven’t they noticed that more mistakes have been made through the years drafting receivers based on 40 times than for probably any other position?  It’s ridiculous.  My eyes tell me there is a WR on the board who is a completely safe pick and that’s Brian Robiskie.  What’s the deal with the line “he’s a safe 2^nd round pick?”  Neither Ginn nor Bess have a lot of size so I want to give whichever Chad ends up playing QB this season a big target who will catch everything thrown at him.

Pick: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio St.
26) Baltimore Ravens
I know there will be lobbying to pick the fast receiver from the local school, Heyward-Bey but I can’t do that for fear of being Troy Williamsoned.  I go away from the stop watch and pick the receiver who I feel is a little more polished.

Pick: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

27) Indianapolis Colts
I’ve seen more than one mock draft has the Colts taking Evander Hood with this selection.  I can’t argue with that.  It’s a position of need and Ziggy has a great motor with a killer spin move to boot!

Pick: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
28) Philadelphia Eagles
The two wide receivers left on the board who have been mentioned as possible first rounders are Heyward-Bey and Hakeem Nicks.  I have strong doubts either can step into the NFL and be productive from the word go.  Instead of saddling McNabb with another young receiver to get used to, I give Westbrook a tag team partner.

Pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
29) NY Giants
I’m loaded on defense with some key free agent acquisitions.  I can make up for the loss of Derek Ward in a later round.  My most glaring need is receiver if Plaxico can’t play.  I’m sure Eli would like someone a little closer to Plaxico’s size to snare his wayward passes, but there isn’t anyone like that on the board.  So I hope to make due with what’s out there.

Pick: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
30) Tennessee Titans
If Kevin Mawae is going to retire then the pick here is easy – Alex Mack.  In fact, that might be the right way to go anyway.  But I’ve got a feeling that the coaches will want to give Vince Young one more chance to pick up the game.  In order to help him, I’d like to give him a security blanket tight end, like a Wychek for McNair, or a Crumpler for Vick.  I could see Sean Nelson filling this role perfectly.  But it goes against my better judgment to reach with a first round pick especially for a tight end.  So instead I see a highly ranked player has fallen to me and it’s in a position of need so I grab him.

Pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, The Ohio St.
31) Arizona Cardinals
I no longer see E. James as a factor.  I like T. Hightower from an effort standpoint but don’t really care for his running style.  Everywhere else the roster is pretty solid which make this pick easy.

Pick: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut
32) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ achille’s heel was their offensive line last season and they still won the Super Bowl.  Fortunately, they’ve got Big Ben who is a Houdini in the pocket and an amazing defense.  It would be nice if Ben didn’t have to run around quite so much.  It appears that center was the most glaring weak spot in the O line  It also appears that Alex Mack is the best center available making this the most agreed upon selection of all the mock drafts I’ve looked at.

Pick: Alex Mack, C, Cal
33) Detroit Lions
I was surprised to hear Mike Mayock say that Jarron Gilbert was not good on tape.  From my understanding he was one of the leaders in the country in TFLs and he blew up several plays in the backfield in the game against Boise St. that I watched.  Because San Jose St.’s roster lacked size Gilbert was forced to play tackle.  I think he has prototype size for a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL and his experience at tackle means he could also probably play a 3-4 defensive end.  I don’t think he’ll be around when we draft again in the 3^rd round and I’d rather take him over some of the tweener DE/LBs left on the board.

Pick: Jarron Gilbert, DT/DE, San Jose St.
34) New England Patriots
This is strange.  I picked Clay Matthews with the 23^rd pick over Brian Cushing because his smoothness at the combine gave me much more confidence he could handle the step up in competition.  Now the way things have fallen I could pick up Cushing as well and they would remain teammates.  But I think it’s time to start looking at the best available athlete instead of filling a need.  Though I’m not a big fan of all of these undersized pass rush specialists, it would appear that Aaron Maybin has slipped as far down in the draft as he could possibly go.

Pick:  Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn St.
35) St. Louis Rams
The prospect of one of the top six tackles sliding to this spot makes my pick of Aaron Curry make even more sense.
Pick: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
36) Cleveland Browns
It’s between Brian Cushing and LeSean McCoy.  Though I have more confidence that McCoy will become a starter in the NFL than Cushing, I can also see that it will be tougher to find help for my defense late in the draft than a solid running back.

Pick: Brian Cushing, LB, USC
37) Seattle Seahawks
I could select LeSean McCoy to try and improve the running game or I could try and add depth to the O Line.  In this situation I draft my blockers first and my runners later.

Pick: Max Unger, C, Oregon
38) Cincinnati Bengals
I want to get the best defender left on the board.  It’s really tough however deciding who that is at this point.  I can be swayed in the direction of Laurinitis though I’m not sure he’s got enough athleticism to compete at this level.  Or I can be swayed in favor of Larry English even though he might have to play out of position on my defense.  In the end I think I would select Laurinitis and hope my doubts are unfounded.

Pick: James Laurinitis, LB, The Ohio St.
39) Jacksonville Jaguars
Wide receiver is a position of need and the speediest receiver is still on the board.  But given the Jags propensity to come up with duds at the receiver position since the glory days of Smith and McCardell, I’d almost be afraid to pick Heyward-Bey with this selection for fear of perpetuating past failures.  But alas, I cannot make my decisions based on superstition.

Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
40) Oakland Raiders
I’m glad the Jags took Heyward-Bey off the board so I don’t feel obligated to select him.  I see a guy on the board in a position of need who is trying to hit people as hard as Jack Tatum once did.

Pick: Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan
41) Green Bay Packers
I would have to consult my defensive coaches on this one, but the fact that Green Bay is switching to 3-4 makes me think Clint Sintim is a natural fit for this spot.

Pick: Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia
42) Buffalo Bills
With T.O. and Lee Evans I’m not going to worry about the fact that the Bills are weak at Tight End.  There won’t be enough balls to go around anyway.  I’d like to give Edwards as much protection as possible and take the best O lineman left on the board.

Pick: Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma
43) San Francisco 49ers
Here’s where the problem of not getting to see the game tape really starts rear it’s ugly head.  I want to get the best O lineman left on the board, but I have to rely on someone else’s evaluation.  But that’s the best I can do.

Pick: Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina

44) Miami Dolphins
Since I didn’t pick up a corner in the first round, and there’s one staring me in the face as the BAA, I take him.

Pick: Sean Smith, CB, Utah
45) NY Giants
My running back depth problem has been conveniently solved by the fact that LeSean McCoy has slipped this deep into the 2^nd round.

Pick: LeSean McCoy, RB, Pitt
46) Houston Texans
Since I went crazy and picked Maclin in the 1^st round it’s now time to make a more sensible pick.  The choices at linebacker look a little meager at this stage so I try for some offensive line help.

Pick: Eric Wood, C, Louisville
47) New England Patriots
To have so many picks and so few needs makes finding a target difficult.  I’ll go with more help for the defense.

Pick: Patrick Chung, S, Oregon
48) Denver Broncos
I had Ron Brace as my pick prior to the Cutler trade.  Now I’ve picked up two defensive linemen in the first round.  I have to ask myself if it’s overkill to pick yet another in the 2^nd.  The change to 3-4 means the Broncos should be looking for a nose tackle and Brace is one of the only players left on the board who could fill this role.  The question becomes whether or not Peria Jerry fits into the nose position or is a better fit in the “5” technique.  With Champ Bailey’s health being spotty and with no other permanent starter on the other side I decide to address another need pick a potential playmaker.
Pick: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
49) Chicago Bears
Wow.  I originally had Freeman in this position.  The Cutler trade definitely changes that. I’ve also picked up Orlando Pace filling another area of need.  It’s obvious that the biggest area of need for the Bears is at wide receiver but I hesitate to select one at this position because I have a feeling that with what is left, the same calibre of receiver is going to be available in the 3^rd and 4^th rounds as is available now.  I’d rather add size and depth in the trenches.
Pick: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
50) Cleveland Browns
The young quarterbacks will need the added security of a good pass receiving TE with the departure of Winslow.

Pick: Sean Nelson, TE, Southern Miss
51) Dallas Cowboys
I would not fool around and pick Pat White here.  I don’t think that’s a luxury this team can afford.  The dismantling done to us by the Eagles in the last game of the season shows we’re not as good as we may have thought we were.  The absence of Roy Williams in the secondary was one of the reasons the team slid and now that he’s gone a replacement is in order.

Pick: William Moore, S, Missouri
52) Philadelphia Eagles
Since I burnt my 1^st round picks on flash, it’s time to bolster the trenches.  I could go offensively or defensively and look for a player with lots of upside.

Pick: Paul Kruger, DE, Utah
53) NY Jets
The Jets have 3 receivers with similar abilities in Cotchery, Stuckey and Clowney.  Adding a #1 receiver would be nice but there isn’t anything like that on the board.  Furthermore, it’s not like they even know who’s going to be throwing the ball to them at this point.  The best thing to do is to continue to shore up the defense.

Pick: Fili Moala, DT, USC
54) Minnesota Vikings
Previously had the Vikes getting Tyson Jackson in the 1^st round and addressing the right tackle position with this pick.  But now that doesn’t make much since.  Some would suggest this would be a good spot for Freeman.  I say if he’s still available in the 3^rd round I might think about it.  But for now, I’m still hoping I can find someone with this pick who will help my team next year.
Pick: Antoine Caldwell, C, Alabama
55) Atlanta Falcons
Now it’s time to come back and get a TE in for Matt Ryan. 

Pick: Clint Ingram, TE, Florida
56) Miami Dolphins
It looks like there could be a run on tight ends at this point and we could use an upgrade at this position.

Pick: Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina
57) Baltimore Ravens
My team is loaded and my success will rely upon the continued development of Flacco.  I’ve already picked a receiver and I’ve had some losses on the D in free agency.  This maybe reach this early but I start looking for a Bart Scott replacement.
Pick: Marcus Freeman, LB, The Ohio St.
58) New England Patriots
I think it might be a little early to pick a guy who is projected to play a position he has never played before, but I think the Patriots like these versatile types of players.

Pick:  Connor Barwin, DE, Cincinnati

59) Carolina Panthers

What a long wait for a first pick.  I don’t think they will be able to find a player who will make an immediate impact at this spot.  I think Carolina’s defense was not as good as everyone made it out to be and it was exposed by good teams at the end of the season.  Furthermore, they have a great running game and one of the best receivers in the league.  The objective now is to keep their best player (Julius Peppers) and look for more help for the defense.

Pick: Sen’Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn
60) NY Giants
With a loaded line up it’s time to select another BAA.
Pick: Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma
61) Indianapolis Colts
If Harrison doesn’t come back to the fold, there may be a temptation to go for someone like Iglesias here.  I think however there will be a number of players with similar abilities available later in the draft.  Also, this team still needs more help on defense and I don’t think has the luxury of picking up another toy for Peyton.

Pick: Lawrence Sidbury, DE, Richmond
62) Tennessee Titans
There’s been a run on tight ends so maybe it’s time to go that direction.  I’m not really impressed with what’s left however.  I’ve never been impressed with any of the Titans receivers since Derrick Mason went away.  It confounds me that Coach Fisher settles for mediocrity at that position.  Gage and McCareins???  Yikes.  It doesn’t help his young QB any. (pun not intended) I see the receivers on the board right now that would be a potential upgrade in Iglesias, Williams, and Gibson.  But because of the early run on receivers, there will be good 2^nd tier receivers available in later rounds.  I’ll grab the most intriguing guy of them, all and hope the Titans luck with drafting guys with fast 40 times at the combine continues.

Pick: Johnny Knox, WR, Abilene Christian
63) Arizona Cardinals
Not many CBs were taken early because of an overall poor performance in the 40 times at the combine.  I think there will be a run on them now.  The Cards can have their pick of the litter.

Pick: Victor Harris, CB, Virginia Tech
64) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers need help at corner also and now is a good time to select one.

Pick: Jairus Byrd, CB, Oregon

2009 NFL Mock Draft
 

This is my first stab at doing this.  I think the main reason I’ve never done this in the past is that I’ve never really felt like I’ve had enough information about all of the players to make any sort of authoritative comments.  But I thought it would be a fun exercise to pick who I would draft instead of trying to “predict” who teams are going to draft.  Even after seeing many of these players in actual games and religiously watching all of the NFL Network’s draft shows, I still do not have all of the information I would like.  This forces me, especially in the 2^nd round, to rely on other people’s assessments.  If I got to watch all of the film I might come up with something completely different, but this is the best I can do with what’s available to me.  One other point: there will undoubtedly be trades on draft day.  There are teams who I think should try to trade their pick, but since I’m the only one doing this, it would be too easy for me to make one-sided trades.  Therefore one of my parameters is that no trades are available.

Now to the draft!

1) Detroit Lions
To me this is a no brainer.  The fact that the Lions also hold the 20^th and 33^rd picks in the draft give them the luxury of taking a shot at Matt Stafford.  I laugh at the people who are afraid to take a QB with a high draft pick because if you miss you “set the franchise back a few years.”  This is thinking by cliche!  God gave you a brain people … USE IT!!!  One, the Lions went 0-16.  You cannot set a franchise back any further.  Two, while many first round QBs never cut the mustard, even fewer (Tom Brady excepted) drafted in later rounds ever make an impact in the league.  Peyton, Donovan, Eli, Ben, Rivers, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco – if you want someone of this caliber, you are usually going to have to expend a 1^st round pick.  Otherwise you risk having someone like Tavaris Jackson as your starting QB.  Yikes!  Talk about setting back a franchise.  If I’m the Lions I’m willing to take the risk of swinging and missing for a QB.  What have I got to lose?  Furthermore, I can “cover” the perceived risk by making “safer” picks at 22 and 33.  As far as evaluating Stafford goes, he’s got all the physical tools and he’s got a great attitude.  Moreover, he welcomes the thought of playing in Detroit.  He’s not going to pull the Eli Manning prima donna act on me.  That’s enough for me.  Some people may think Mark Sanchez will be a better QB.  Fair enough.  I like him too.  I just have a little more confidence in Stafford.

Pick: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia.
2) St. Louis Rams
Most mock drafts have the Rams picking one of the top offensive tackles with this pick.  I wonder if this is a knee-jerk reaction to setting Orlando Pace free.  While I do see the need to get someone to replace Pace, I think the Rams have needs all over the board.  The whole team stinks.  I’d be more inclined to pick the best player on the board and I think that is Aaron Curry.  First, I’d want to carefully review the game tapes to make sure he’s as good a tackler as he is an athlete.  Once I’m convinced of this, picking him makes more sense to me than picking a tackle.  I think a great defender has a bigger impact on turning a team into a winning one than a good starting tackle.  Furthermore, I think the opportunity to acquire a great defender comes along less frequently than the opportunity to acquire a good starting tackle.  I know I’ll have to address the O line problems at some point but I can’t pass up the chance to get a potentially special player for my defense.

Pick: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
3) Kansas City Chiefs
I’m miffed that the Rams took Curry but I console myself by getting a tackle to pair with last year’s rookie Branden Albert and feel good about the book ends I’ll have for the O Line for the next 10 years.

Pick: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
4) Seattle Seahawks
Once the Seahawks picked up T.J. Houshmanzadeh I saw a lot of mock drafts change from Crabtree at this spot to one of the top tackles.  I think that would be a mistake.  While T.J. is a very good receiver he’s never had to be the #1 guy.  Furthermore, he’s in his 30s.  What I am saying is that the Seahawks are far from set at the WR position.  But picture a receiving corps of T.J., Crabtree, Branch and Burleson.  Hasselback would be drooling all over himself.  You also need to consider the fact that while W. Jones will need a replacement someday, that day is not today.  Cross that bridge when you get there.  Watching Crabtree play and seeing him catch the ball I know he is something special and I don’t need to know his damn 40 time to confirm that.  People who cannot see it, have to rely on “the measurables” and to them I say too bad – enjoy your Troy Williamsons.

Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
5) Cleveland Browns
Here’s the first spot where I would like to make a trade.  The best player on the board is Eugene Monroe but I just drafted Joe Thomas two years ago and my bad football team has much more pressing needs.  We were a seive against the run last year and we couldn’t rush the passer.  I’d like to address those situations but I don’t believe there is anyone with those capabilities in their repertoire worthy of the 5^th pick.  I probably could slide back, swapping with someone who really wants Monroe and still pick up Raji or Orakpo.  That would be the best case scenario in my opinion.  But if that weren’t possible I’d go with the defender with whom I felt the best about.

Pick: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
6) Cincinnati Bengals
I sprint to the podium with Eugene Monroe’s name on the card.

Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
7) Oakland Raiders
Here’s where it gets interesting.  It’s too early for Maclin in my opinion.  I think he’ll probably be a productive pro but not sure if he’ll ever be a #1 receiver and in order for me to take a WR in the top 10 I want him to be a #1.  I’d like a tackle but the best on the board is Andre Smith.  I don’t want to draft him because I think he’s immature and it’s too early to draft any of the other tackles.  I decide to go out on a limb.  My defensive line could use a makeover.  Though it’s risky, there’s a player on the board who’s got the potential to be a great outside pass rusher in a 4-3 scheme.  I would take a chance on him.

Pick: Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
8) Jacksonville Jaguars
Our once excellent defense has lost a lot of key personnel and is no longer formidable.  The O line has been decimated by injuries and off field problems.  People who still project this team as a threat in the AFC are high.  The Jags will surely be in the basement of the AFC South next season and to think that can be changed by who they draft at this position is either stupidity or wishful thinking.  We’ve been really bad at picking receivers but I’m not going to try and correct the problem by reaching for Maclin.  Instead I’m picking Marc Sanchez at this position unless someone offers me the world in a trade.  Garrard is serviceable but never will be a top tier QB in my opinion.  So I’m looking to start over.  I can snag Sanchez here and let him develop behind Garrard.  Meanwhile, with the rest of this draft and subsequent drafts I can go about steadily rebuilding the team.  The key is to have the team peaking when Sanchez has developed enough to take over the helm.

Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
9) Green Bay Packers
The defense needs help and the team is switching to a 3-4.  I see Everette Brown being mentioned in this spot on a lot mock drafts.  While that makes sense to me, I’ve got the urge to go in a completely different and unexpected direction.  I picture the Packers offense in the late season with a big and fast running back pounding defenses on the frozen tundra.  I picture how that may make things easier on Aaron Rodgers.  Unless my coaches see a way to fit Rey Maualuga into our defense, I take Beenie Wells.

Pick:  Chris “Beenie” Wells, RB, The Ohio St.

10) San Francisco 49ers
Coach Singletary wants to hit people in the mouth and I’d like to provide him with players in which to do that.  I’m looking at the board and the first name that jumps out is Maualuga.  However, I already got P. Willis manning my MLB position so it doesn’t make much sense to grab the SC backer.  If the coaches wanted to get creative and go 3-4, or perhaps try to convert Maualuga to outside backer I’d oblige them and take him.  Short of that, I’m looking for a pass rusher.  I got excited about Robert Ayers during Senior Bowl week.  I know Mike Mayock thinks very highly of Ayres.  I know that we are perhaps in the minority on this point.  But I trust my gut and make him my pick.

Pick: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
11) Buffalo Bills
Obvious to anyone who’s read my above entries knows that I think highly of Rey Maualuga.  I don’t understand why he has dropped in so many mock drafts.  What?  Just because he’s missed some tackles while going for the kill shot and because he strained his hammy running the 40 in Indy?  I don’t care about that.  I see a guy who plays like his hair is on fire.  I’ve just picked up T.O. and now I can add some excitement to the defensive side of the ball with this pick.

Pick:  Ray Maualuga, LB, USC
12) Denver Broncos
I really don’t want any part of this team.  The McDaniel v. Cutler battle has soured all hope for a quick recovery from this franchise’s recent swoon.  I have a hard time “role playing” as Denver’s GM because I would never let this whole debacle occur on my football team.  Not that Cutler is a saint, but I believe McDaniel’s youth is a primary factor in his inability to handle the situation in a more consiliatory manner.  But for now I’m just going to pretend that I either keep Cutler or trade him for later picks.  With this pick I start the big task of trying to rebuild the defense.  I want someone with balast to anchor the line.  The guy I see who best fills this role is Peria Jerry.

(written before Pat Bowlen’s announcement to trade Cutler on 3/31)

Pick:  Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
13) Washington Redskins
I hate to break it to Mr. Snyder but even with his latest spending spree, the team is really not any closer to being a championship football team than it was last year.  The team is strong on both sides of the ball but is not going to elevate its standing until either Jason Campbell elevates his play or the Redskins replace him with someone who can.  Jim Zorn worked some magic and had Campbell playing much better than he had under the Gibbs regime but there is still some way to go.  Being that the Redskins’ success hinges on what happens at the QB position and the team has no specific area of need, I’m freed up to take the BAA on the board. (I don’t disagree with those who think they could use more help at the WR position, however I’m not going to chase with another early draft pick when I’ve got two young guys I drafted last year whose full potential has yet to be explored.)  My concerns about Andre Smith are not as great when I’m not using a top 10 pick and furthermore, if he never becomes a top left tackle he should at the very least add depth to the O line.

Pick: Andre Smith OT, Alabama
14) New Orleans Saints
In my mock draft, Beenie Wells is off the board, but even if he wasn’t I would not take him with the Saints selection in spite of the fact that some people feel he is the perfect replacement for Deuce McAllister.  You might ask why I would select him at #9 with the Packers pick, but not at #14 for the Saints.  Both teams are similarly built with good passing games and bad defenses.  My answer is that Aaron Rogers is young and the Packers have time to continue building their team piece by piece.  On the other hand, Drew Brees is in his prime.  The Saints have a chance to be a championship team right now if they can somehow improve their defense and they should throw as many resources as they can to fix it.  I hate the fact that I have only 1 pick in the first 2 rounds in which to try and improve the defense but can’t do anything about it except take the strongest defender left on the board.

Pick: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
15) Houston Texans
I think the Texans have sufficiently addressed their needs along the D Line in free agency.  There is a nice critical mass of talent that’s come together on this team and I would just try to continue to add to that.  Looking at the board there are some enticing players still available.  At first I penciled in Vontae Davis in this spot trying to round out the defense.  But then the thought of putting Maclin opposite Andre Johnson to create a lethal combination came to mind and that’s just too an enticing a proposition to pass up.

Pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
16) San Diego Chargers
I had Maclin penciled into this spot until I swooped in with the Texans and took him away.  Now I have to go back to the drawing board.  I think the obvious solution is to take Percy Harvin.  Though I’m a little concerned that he’s somewhat duplicative of Darren Sproules, getting some speed at the wide out position should be a priority for this team.

Pick: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

17) NY Jets
I can see why they would be interested in Cutler.  I’d give away this pick and more to get him.  But assuming that’s not going to happen and that there isn’t really a QB worthy at this spot in the draft I’m going to try and give Rob Ryan another toy to play with on his defense.

Pick: Everette Brown, DE, Florida St.
18) Chicago Bears
As can be seen with my pick for the Chiefs, I kind of like the idea of being set at the offensive tackle position for the foreseable future.  Wide receiver is also a need but it’s a deep class of receivers this year so I should be able to get capable help at that position later in the draft.  I’m going with offensive tackle and pair him with C. Williams as the bookends on my O line.  For some inexplicable reason, I just have more faith in William Beatty then the other available tackles.  I have no concrete evidence to support this.  It’s just a feeling.

Pick: William Beatty, OT, Connecticut
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I am not drafting Josh Freeman with this pick.  I don’t want to groom a QB who looks to be no better than Washington’s Jason Campbell.  Besides, I just fired the head coach who was my resident QB tutor.  I don’t think any of the WRs left are worthy of this high of a pick so I’ll turn to another team need and pick Vontae Davis who by all accounts would be considered a very good value at this spot.

Pick: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
20) Detroit Lions
I don’t expect the magical results the Falcons experienced when they went QB/OT in last year’s draft, but it’s still a pretty good formula.  The decision is between Eben Britten and Michael Oher.  Oher may have more god given talent but there are some questions about his drive and work ethic.  Having taken Stafford at #1, the Lions cannot afford to miss with this pick and thus I go with the less risky of the two options.

Pick: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
21) Philadelphia Eagles
A new weapon for Donovan is in order here, and there are plenty of receivers to choose from.  The problem with the wide receivers available is that I don’t see any of them developing into a pure #1 receiver.  All will probably be more productive if they can be paired with a good veteran receiver.  So I’m going to give Donovan a different sort of target.  With his great hands and big size, Brandon Pettigrew is going to be a beast in the red zone.  That’s just what Donovan needs.

Pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St.
22) Minnesota Vikings
This team has to do something about its quarterback situation but the draft is not where I’d look for help.  Josh Freeman may develop into a quarterback but I’ve got a roster that I can win with right now and don’t have time to wait for the quarterback to develop.  The left end was a chink in the armor of the Viking D line last year as a result of Kenechi Udeze’s illness so I will pick Tyson Jackson in hopes of giving an anchor to that side of the line and making the Vikings defense truly formidable.

Pick: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
23) New England Patriots
I’d probably select whoever Bill Bellichek told me he wanted.  He seems to have a preference for cerebral linebackers.

Pick: Clay Matthews, LB, USC
24) Atlanta Falcons
I don’t think it such a horrible thing that the Eagles took Pettigrew ahead of us.  This gives us a chance to continue to fill out our roster with upgraded talent.  We can get a TE for Matt Ryan later in the draft.  For now, it’s time to shore up the defense.

Pick: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
25) Miami Dolphins
Mock draft prognosticators kill me.  Their eyes tell them they are looking at a sure talent, but they don’t trust their eyes.  They rely on the tape measure and stop watch.  Haven’t they noticed that more mistakes have been made through the years drafting receivers based on 40 times than for probably any other position?  It’s ridiculous.  My eyes tell me there is a WR on the board who is a completely safe pick and that’s Brian Robiskie.  What’s the deal with the line “he’s a safe 2^nd round pick?”  Neither Ginn nor Bess have a lot of size so I want to give whichever Chad ends up playing QB this season a big target who will catch everything thrown at him.

Pick: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio St.
26) Baltimore Ravens
I know there will be lobbying to pick the fast receiver from the local school, Heyward-Bey but I can’t do that for fear of being Troy Williamsoned.  I go away from the stop watch and pick the receiver who I feel is a little more polished.

Pick: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

27) Indianapolis Colts
I’ve seen more than one mock draft has the Colts taking Evander Hood with this selection.  I can’t argue with that.  It’s a position of need and Ziggy has a great motor with a killer spin move to boot!

Pick: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
28) Philadelphia Eagles
The two wide receivers left on the board who have been mentioned as possible first rounders are Heyward-Bey and Hakeem Nicks.  I have strong doubts either can step into the NFL and be productive from the word go.  Instead of saddling McNabb with another young receiver to get used to, I give Westbrook a tag team partner.

Pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
29) NY Giants
I’m loaded on defense with some key free agent acquisitions.  I can make up for the loss of Derek Ward in a later round.  My most glaring need is receiver if Plaxico can’t play.  I’m sure Eli would like someone a little closer to Plaxico’s size to snare his wayward passes, but there isn’t anyone like that on the board.  So I hope to make due with what’s out there.

Pick: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
30) Tennessee Titans
If Kevin Mawae is going to retire then the pick here is easy – Alex Mack.  In fact, that might be the right way to go anyway.  But I’ve got a feeling that the coaches will want to give Vince Young one more chance to pick up the game.  In order to help him, I’d like to give him a security blanket tight end, like a Wychek for McNair, or a Crumpler for Vick.  I could see Sean Nelson filling this role perfectly.  But it goes against my better judgment to reach with a first round pick especially for a tight end.  So instead I see a highly ranked player has fallen to me and it’s in a position of need so I grab him.

Pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, The Ohio St.
31) Arizona Cardinals
I no longer see E. James as a factor.  I like T. Hightower from an effort standpoint but don’t really care for his running style.  Everywhere else the roster is pretty solid which make this pick easy.

Pick: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut
32) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ achille’s heel was their offensive line last season and they still won the Super Bowl.  Fortunately, they’ve got Big Ben who is a Houdini in the pocket and an amazing defense.  It would be nice if Ben didn’t have to run around quite so much.  It appears that center was the most glaring weak spot in the O line  It also appears that Alex Mack is the best center available making this the most agreed upon selection of all the mock drafts I’ve looked at.

Pick: Alex Mack, C, Cal
33) Detroit Lions
I was surprised to hear Mike Mayock say that Jarron Gilbert was not good on tape.  From my understanding he was one of the leaders in the country in TFLs and he blew up several plays in the backfield in the game against Boise St. that I watched.  Because San Jose St.’s roster lacked size Gilbert was forced to play tackle.  I think he has prototype size for a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL and his experience at tackle means he could also probably play a 3-4 defensive end.  I don’t think he’ll be around when we draft again in the 3^rd round and I’d rather take him over some of the tweener DE/LBs left on the board.

Pick: Jarron Gilbert, DT/DE, San Jose St.
34) New England Patriots
This is strange.  I picked Clay Matthews with the 23^rd pick over Brian Cushing because his smoothness at the combine gave me much more confidence he could handle the step up in competition.  Now the way things have fallen I could pick up Cushing as well and they would remain teammates.  But I think it’s time to start looking at the best available athlete instead of filling a need.  Though I’m not a big fan of all of these undersized pass rush specialists, it would appear that Aaron Maybin has slipped as far down in the draft as he could possibly go.

Pick:  Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn St.
35) St. Louis Rams
The prospect of one of the top six tackles sliding to this spot makes my pick of Aaron Curry make even more sense.
Pick: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
36) Cleveland Browns
It’s between Brian Cushing and LeSean McCoy.  Though I have more confidence that McCoy will become a starter in the NFL than Cushing, I can also see that it will be tougher to find help for my defense late in the draft than a solid running back.

Pick: Brian Cushing, LB, USC
37) Seattle Seahawks
I could select LeSean McCoy to try and improve the running game or I could try and add depth to the O Line.  In this situation I draft my blockers first and my runners later.

Pick: Max Unger, C, Oregon
38) Cincinnati Bengals
I want to get the best defender left on the board.  It’s really tough however deciding who that is at this point.  I can be swayed in the direction of Laurinitis though I’m not sure he’s got enough athleticism to compete at this level.  Or I can be swayed in favor of Larry English even though he might have to play out of position on my defense.  In the end I think I would select Laurinitis and hope my doubts are unfounded.

Pick: James Laurinitis, LB, The Ohio St.
39) Jacksonville Jaguars
Wide receiver is a position of need and the speediest receiver is still on the board.  But given the Jags propensity to come up with duds at the receiver position since the glory days of Smith and McCardell, I’d almost be afraid to pick Heyward-Bey with this selection for fear of perpetuating past failures.  But alas, I cannot make my decisions based on superstition.

Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
40) Oakland Raiders
I’m glad the Jags took Heyward-Bey off the board so I don’t feel obligated to select him.  I see a guy on the board in a position of need who is trying to hit people as hard as Jack Tatum once did.

Pick: Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan
41) Green Bay Packers
I would have to consult my defensive coaches on this one, but the fact that Green Bay is switching to 3-4 makes me think Clint Sintim is a natural fit for this spot.

Pick: Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia
42) Buffalo Bills
With T.O. and Lee Evans I’m not going to worry about the fact that the Bills are weak at Tight End.  There won’t be enough balls to go around anyway.  I’d like to give Edwards as much protection as possible and take the best O lineman left on the board.

Pick: Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma
43) San Francisco 49ers
Here’s where the problem of not getting to see the game tape really starts rear it’s ugly head.  I want to get the best O lineman left on the board, but I have to rely on someone else’s evaluation.  But that’s the best I can do.

Pick: Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina

44) Miami Dolphins
Since I didn’t pick up a corner in the first round, and there’s one staring me in the face as the BAA, I take him.

Pick: Sean Smith, CB, Utah
45) NY Giants
My running back depth problem has been conveniently solved by the fact that LeSean McCoy has slipped this deep into the 2^nd round.

Pick: LeSean McCoy, RB, Pitt
46) Houston Texans
Since I went crazy and picked Maclin in the 1^st round it’s now time to make a more sensible pick.  The choices at linebacker look a little meager at this stage so I try for some offensive line help.

Pick: Eric Wood, C, Louisville
47) New England Patriots
To have so many picks and so few needs makes finding a target difficult.  I’ll go with more help for the defense.

Pick: Patrick Chung, S, Oregon
48) Denver Broncos
Because size on the defensive line is a premium the Broncos should consider themselves lucky if Ron Brace is still available here even if he is only a run stuffer.

Pick: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
49) Chicago Bears
I don’t think Josh Freeman will still be around in the 3^rd round while I might be able to find a starter at another position even as late as the 3^rd round.  Therefore, I take a chance at solving the Bears long term QB problems.

Pick: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas St.
50) Cleveland Browns
The young quarterbacks will need the added security of a good pass receiving TE with the departure of Winslow.

Pick: Sean Nelson, TE, Southern Miss
51) Dallas Cowboys
I would not fool around and pick Pat White here.  I don’t think that’s a luxury this team can afford.  The dismantling done to us by the Eagles in the last game of the season shows we’re not as good as we may have thought we were.  The absence of Roy Williams in the secondary was one of the reasons the team slid and now that he’s gone a replacement is in order.

Pick: William Moore, S, Missouri
52) Philadelphia Eagles
Since I burnt my 1^st round picks on flash, it’s time to bolster the trenches.  I could go offensively or defensively and look for a player with lots of upside.

Pick: Paul Kruger, DE, Utah
53) NY Jets
The Jets have 3 receivers with similar abilities in Cotchery, Stuckey and Clowney.  Adding a #1 receiver would be nice but there isn’t anything like that on the board.  Furthermore, it’s not like they even know who’s going to be throwing the ball to them at this point.  The best thing to do is to continue to shore up the defense.

Pick: Fili Moala, DT, USC
54) Minnesota Vikings
Right tackle has been a weak spot in the line so it’s worth taking a chance on a massive player who might fill that role.

Pick: Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma
55) Atlanta Falcons
Now it’s time to come back and get a TE in for Matt Ryan. 

Pick: Clint Ingram, TE, Florida
56) Miami Dolphins
It looks like there could be a run on tight ends at this point and we could use an upgrade at this position.

Pick: Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina
57) Baltimore Ravens
Alphonso Smith has fallen much further than I had expected.  The Ravens gladly take him.

Pick: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
58) New England Patriots
I think it might be a little early to pick a guy who is projected to play a position he has never played before, but I think the Patriots like these versatile types of players.

Pick:  Connor Barwin, DE, Cincinnati

59) Carolina Panthers

What a long wait for a first pick.  I don’t think they will be able to find a player who will make an immediate impact at this spot.  I think Carolina’s defense was not as good as everyone made it out to be and it was exposed by good teams at the end of the season.  Furthermore, they have a great running game and one of the best receivers in the league.  The objective now is to keep their best player (Julius Peppers) and look for more help for the defense.

Pick: Sen’Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn
60) NY Giants
With a loaded line up it’s time to select another BAA.

Pick: D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
61) Indianapolis Colts
If Harrison doesn’t come back to the fold, there may be a temptation to go for someone like Iglesias here.  I think however there will be a number of players with similar abilities available later in the draft.  Also, this team still needs more help on defense and I don’t think has the luxury of picking up another toy for Peyton.

Pick: Lawrence Sidbury, DE, Richmond
62) Tennessee Titans
There’s been a run on tight ends so maybe it’s time to go that direction.  I’m not really impressed with what’s left however.  I’ve never been impressed with any of the Titans receivers since Derrick Mason went away.  It confounds me that Coach Fisher settles for mediocrity at that position.  Gage and McCareins???  Yikes.  It doesn’t help his young QB any. (pun not intended) I see the receivers on the board right now that would be a potential upgrade in Iglesias, Williams, and Gibson.  But because of the early run on receivers, there will be good 2^nd tier receivers available in later rounds.  I’ll grab the most intriguing guy of them, all and hope the Titans luck with drafting guys with fast 40 times at the combine continues.

Pick: Johnny Knox, WR, Abilene Christian
63) Arizona Cardinals
Not many CBs were taken early because of an overall poor performance in the 40 times at the combine.  I think there will be a run on them now.  The Cards can have their pick of the litter.

Pick: Victor Harris, CB, Virginia Tech
64) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers need help at corner also and now is a good time to select one.

Pick: Jairus Byrd, CB, Oregon